Every year, we do this same old song and dance with the quarterback position. Why is that? It’s twofold.
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- Kirk Cousins performance is never quite good enough
- His contract makes it difficult to maneuver the salary cap
It’s not solely about the fact that Cousins makes a large amount of money, it’s also about the flexibility that having a large contract allows. Cousins has never been willing to sign a long-term deal.
On Sunday night right after the Kansas City Chiefs beat the Philadelphia Eagles by a score of 38-35, the discussion came up about whether it’s the right strategy to build your team around a rookie quarterback’s salary.
didn't realize how insecure folks get about the "win a SB w/QB on a rookie deal"
4 of the last 5 SB losers have employed a QB on a rookie deal. 8 of the last 9 SB winners have employed a QB not on a rookie deal
if ya want to get there and lose — keep bangin the drum, I guess
— Dustin Baker (@DustBaker) February 13, 2023
The stat itself doesn’t provide any real context. In fact, it completely lacks any context. Let’s dive in and find said context. Is it the best strategy?
The past 10 Super Bowls
Let’s look at the last 10 Super Bowls with quarterbacks on a rookie deal being listed in italics and the winners being listed first.
- 2013: Russell Wilson vs. Peyton Manning
- 2014: Tom Brady vs. Russell Wilson
- 2015: Peyton Manning vs. Cam Newton
- 2016: Tom Brady vs. Matt Ryan
- 2017: Nick Foles vs. Tom Brady
- 2018: Tom Brady vs. Jared Goff
- 2019: Patrick Mahomes vs. Jimmy Garoppolo
- 2020: Tom Brady vs. Patrick Mahomes
- 2021: Matthew Stafford vs. Joe Burrow
- 2022: Patrick Mahomes vs. Jalen Hurts
Let’s give this more context because it’s not nearly as simple as yes or no.
- Newton was technically playing on the final year of his rookie contract, but he had signed a five-year extension. His cap hit was slightly over $10 million
- Foles was a backup quarterback that replaced a quarterback on a rookie contract. Combined, they were paid significantly less than what a starting-caliber quarterback on a second contract would make.
- Stafford’s cap hit was $20 million in 2021 which was very reasonable for the time, but trading away Goff left a $24.7 million dead cap hit.
What’s more important in regards to context is with the greatest player of all time.
Tom Brady is the ultimate anomaly
Over the last ten seasons, Brady has appeared in five Super Bowls and won four of them. Just that alone qualifies him as being the ultimate anomaly. With Brady, it doesn’t end there.
Over his entire career, Brady has always taken less money. He did that in New England and did so when he signed with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. When you have any discussions like this, that has to be the number one discussion point.
Yes, Brady still made a lot of money, but he took significantly less. In 2013 when quarterbacks were set to make $20 million per season, he signed an extension for five years and $57 million. Just because he’s on a veteran contract, doesn’t mean it’s equal to a market-value contract.
Patrick Mahomes is unfair
Patrick Mahomes became the first quarterback to win a Super Bowl while carrying a cap hit of 17% or higher. Before Sunday, no team had ever won the Super Bowl with a quarterback taking up more than 12.5% of the salary cap.
patrick mahomes won the super bowl taking up 17% of his team’s salary cap
previously there was no quarterback that won a super bowl taking up more than 12.5% of their team’s salary cap in a season
— Tej Seth (@tejfbanalytics) February 13, 2023
Why is this important? It’s more about the fact that Mahomes is on a different level than literally every other quarterback other than Brady. He is able to do anything that you need of him and continues to overcome any obstacle you put in front him.
Simply put, Mahomes is the ultimate outlier and using him in an argument like this becomes extremely bad faith because there isn’t another like him.
Building around a rookie quarterback delivers a better team
If anyone tells you that you can just go into the draft and find another Mahomes, they aren’t worth listening to. The concept of trying to find a top flight quarterback by investing capital in trying to do so.
That is something the Vikings haven’t done much of at all. Since 1980, the Vikings have only drafted four quarterbacks in the top 64 picks with none of them before 1999.
Here’s the funny thing… a lot of people look at this list of “meh” QBs as validation for why drafting QBs high is risky.
But the Vikings made the playoffs five times with those QBs. Including Ponder and TJack, who were complete busts.
Imagine if they weren’t busts?!
— Phil Mackey 🎙 (@PhilMackey) February 13, 2023
The Vikings have a long and storied history of going to the veteran well time and time again. The only two players that showed they could be adequate starters were Daunte Culpepper and Teddy Bridgewater, but unfortunately, both of their careers were ultimately ruined by devastating knee injuries.
Even though you have misses, that doesn’t mean you don’t stop trying. You should be trying consistently to find that guy because he makes such a difference.
The easiest way to build a championship contender is by having a quarterback on a rookie contract. Over the last 11 Super Bowls, there hasn’t been a single Super Bowl that hasn’t included either a quarterback on a rookie contract or one of Tom Brady or Patrick Mahomes. One Super Bowl had both and Mahomes was technically still on his rookie contract.
The reason you want to have a quarterback on a rookie contract is the cap space that you save. The Cincinnati Bengals are a prime example of this. Burrow is about to count $11.51 towards the salary cap. With top quarterback contracts starting to approach and hit $50 million per season, that $38.5 million can be allocated to players that you would be unable to pay. A few players that they have invested money into that might not be there without a rookie quarterback.
- NT D.J. Reader-$15.52 million
- RB Joe Mixon-$12.79 million
- DT B.J. Hill-$10.83 million
The Bengals also have a surplus of quality players that come in around the $8-10 million mark. Having a complete team is such a big deal when competing to a Super Bowl and you are afforded that luxury with both good drafting and salary cap flexibility with your quarterback position.
What can we conclude from this?
You can throw any finite stat without context that you want, but that doesn’t make it either correct or the right thing to do. Eric Eager of Sumer Sports talked about building a roster with a rookie quarterback had this to say.
In other words, if you don't have a QB on a rookie deal, your QB isn't a hall of famer, or you're not coached by a Shanahan/McVay-tier guy, good luck.
— Eric Eager 📊🏈 (@ericeager_) February 14, 2023
At the end of the day, process > results every time and, until you have that guy or have a truly elite roster, you should do whatever you can to find that quarterback. Would you rather hope and pray for a middle-tier quarterback who isn’t among the elite to get you to the Super Bowl or shoot for the moon and, even if you find a Jared Goff-level player, you can get to the Super Bowl with a great roster and coaching staff?
Rookie contracts at quarterback matter and simply quoting an out of context stat from Pro Football Reference won’t change that.
