Sergio Perez’s ongoing struggles in Formula 1 have left his Red Bull bosses facing a $20 million headache over what it does with him going forward.
Where once his lack of scoring was not much more than an annoyance, and only had an impact on the Mexican’s own drivers’ championship positions, things have got much more critical now that McLaren and Ferrari have stepped up.
Red Bull is quickly facing up to a reality that, with Perez not delivering the points hoped for, it now risks finishing third in the constructors’ championship this year if it does not quickly turn around the speed of its car.
Ferrari’s resurgent form, having taken back-to-back wins and double podiums in Austin and Mexico, has helped the Maranello squad join McLaren in overtaking early-season front runners Red Bull in the teams’ standings.
McLaren is still out in front on 566, with Ferrari 29 points back on 537 – leaving Red Bull picking up third place on 512.
While Red Bull's gap to those ahead of it is not mathematically insurmountable, with a lot of points still to play for, the reality is that Red Bull is barely holding on to the tailcoats of F1’s current two pace-setters – so has little hope of turning the situation around.
The current car performances are also why it is understood that there seems little to gain in pushing for a driver change before the end of the season – because nobody is going to be able to step in and be guaranteed to save its plight enough right now.
Ending up behind McLaren and Ferrari will have major consequences for Red Bull, because it well understands that F1’s prize money system is based entirely on constructors’ championship position. So, a third place finish to end the 2024 campaign, as opposed to winning it as looked highly likely in the early phase of the campaign, will be a big financial blow.
And should it come to the point of analysing why exactly – with championship positions worth around $10 million each – it has ended up with $20 million less than it had hoped for, it will have to look at the points that Perez left begging throughout the campaign.
It is this element that will also certainly dictate what Red Bull does when it comes to deciding who Max Verstappen’s team-mate will be next year.
Right now, all indications are that Liam Lawson will get the nod if he continues doing what he is doing. The New Zealander has shown strong form since returning to the F1 cockpit as the replacement for Daniel Ricciardo from the United States Grand Prix.
Although he perhaps overstepped the mark of what was expected of him by clashing with Perez – and then showing him the finger – in Mexico last week, what he has also shown is that he is more than ready to get stuck in – a characteristic that Red Bull’s chiefs always want to see.
But Red Bull’s driver decision is not as simple as picking the best two candidates it can for the main team – because it also has to factor in what goes on at sister squad RB. There is no point shifting all the good drivers to Red Bull for a constructors’ championship boost, if that then leaves RB with a line-up that drops it down the order.
A Lawson promotion to the top squad in 2025 could only really happen if it was sure that there was another strong candidate to slot in as team-mate to Yuki Tsunoda.
The obvious next driver in line coming up the Red Bull ranks is Isack Hadjar but, despite his strong season in F2, he would almost certainly benefit from a year of testing and development work to get himself up to speed with F1 before being thrust into what looks like a super-tight midfield battle for RB.
However, another interesting scenario emerged over the Mexico Grand Prix weekend, and that is of Red Bull trying to get Franco Colapinto out of Williams’ grasps to slot him in next year.
The Argentine has made a big impression in F1 since Williams drafted him in from the Italian Grand Prix – scoring points and becoming a fan-favourite.
Red Bull boss Christian Horner has raved about his performances – being quoted recently as saying he is “turning heads” and telling media in Mexico that he would not be doing his job if he hadn’t made enquiries about his availability.
Sources have suggested that there is another key interest from Red Bull, and that is in tapping into the Latin American sponsor market – as interest in the region ramps up off the back of Colapinto’s form.
Red Bull had good knock-on sponsor benefits to having Perez on board, and there seems plenty of opportunity and interest from Argentinean sponsors already – with Williams certainly capitalising.
While Williams has said repeatedly it would like nothing more than seeing Colapinto land a race seat in F1 in 2025, there remain suggestions it may still want to keep hold of him as much as possible. That suggests any race seat for 2025 would be on a loan basis, rather than letting the youngster become a free agent.
From Red Bull’s perspective, however, this may be a deal breaker – as Marko admitted last weekend that it has no interest in taking someone on loan only to make them better for when they return.
"The problem with him is that he has a long-term contract with Williams," the Austrian told the Kleine Zeitung. "[Taking him on loan] is not interesting for any team. You do not want to train a driver for another team."
It is a situation that seems quite fluid at the moment, and it is little wonder that Williams team boss James Vowles hinted at it being quite delicate when asked about what was going on with Colapinto and RB.
Speaking to F1 TV, Vowles said: "He [Colapinto] has earned his place on the grid, and what we want to help with that is finding him a place in that regard.
"What it looks like, I can't tell you at the moment, because A, it's very sensitive, and B, there's really not a lot to discuss right now.”
Much will depend on what Williams feels it wants to do with Colapinto long term, and from Red Bull’s perspective it is understood that there are other candidates on its shortlist being considered as well so it is unlikely to pay over the odds for any release.
So, exactly how things shake out with Red Bull’s driver line-up across both its teams for 2025 remains uncertain, but one thing is clear: it will not accept a $20 million prize money drop for the second year running.
