Global bond yields are surging to levels not seen in decades, and the world is starting to feel it. The U.S.-Iran war has lit an inflationary fire under energy markets, and that fire is now burning through government debt from Washington to Tokyo. The 10-year U.S. Treasury yield has crossed 4.6%, its highest point in nearly a year. The 30-year Treasury yield has breached 5.1% for the first time since 2007. Britain's 30-year gilt yield has hit 5.85% — a level not seen this century. These are not abstract numbers. They dictate what you pay for a mortgage, what businesses pay to borrow, and ultimately how fast — or slowly — economies grow.
The trigger is clear, even if the consequences are not fully priced in yet. Crude oil has surged more than 50% since the war erupted, with Brent now above $109 a barrel as the Strait of Hormuz remains largely closed to tanker traffic.
