If society doesn’t get serious about the climate crisis this decade “that failure will reverberate for centuries to thousands of years” a leading Irish scientist has warned.
Maynooth University climatology Professor Peter Thorne represented Ireland and the UK as part of a global team who summarised all six reports from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change into a policy guide for governments.
The AR6 synthesis report was published today and has been dubbed a final warning for humanity.
It outlines how limiting global warming to 1.5 degrees above pre industrial levels is still possible and that we have the solutions to deliver.
But it also states urgent action is needed around the world to “secure a liveable future for all”.
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Speaking to us ahead of the report’s launch Prof Thorne outlined how the climate crisis is already impacting Irish society through storms, heatwaves and increased rainfall.
But he warns that unless we and the rest of the world get to grips with the problem, we are facing increased food insecurity, rising sea levels and more.
Prof Thorne said the report “makes absolutely clear it is not a problem for future politicians to worry about”.
“It is a problem we have to grapple with now as politicians, as society, as communities, as industry.
“If we fail to act in this decade, the consequences of that failure will reverberate for centuries to thousands of years into the future.
“We in the developed world and nations such as Ireland, we have a greater responsibility to act and a greater ability to act and we must act,” he added.
“We have nearly everything we need to undertake the action to send us really on the right path - what’s lacking is the actual action.
“It’s this decade, it’s this government, it’s the next government that has to get us on that path.
“The best time to have started taking action would have been the 1980s or 1990s when we knew there was a problem.
“If we had taken meaningful action then we would have had far more options open to us now.
“There are no more excuses not to take action - there haven’t been really for a long time.
“We’ve already seen across the island of Ireland over the past decade, increasing evidence of impacts of climate change in things like Storm Desmond in 2015... heavy convective precipitation both in Derry and that area up in the north,” he explained.
“The heatwave we saw last summer is also very much in line with increases in heat extremes under climate change.
“It’s very hard to say for one individual community, but we’re seeing this increase in heat extremes and precipitation extremes in particular in north west Europe. We would expect those to become more frequent.”
For people in Ireland who eat mostly imported food, rising temperatures will also impact food security.
Prof Thorne added: “We will see this increasingly.
“The European single market is protecting us to some extent but there is only so much you can do.
“Last summer we saw high impact events across most of the great ‘bread baskets’ of the world, across India, China, Europe, the US.
“It impacts on agricultural production and knock-on impacts for food security for society will be massive and of course this gets into the vexed discussion around what food we should be producing and eating.
“There is no getting away from the fact that red meat, in particular beef, has very high emissions, relative to alternative diets that might be more productive use of land.
“We’ve already seen impacts on the agricultural sector... in both input to agricultural systems, fodder crises and other things.
“We’ve seen this late winter, early spring the impacts of climate change on the provision of fresh vegetables.
“That’s not necessarily an impact of Brexit in the first instance - it’s occurring across much of Europe and much of the globe.”
The professor says reducing emissions and keeping global warming to below 1.5 will reduce the impacts, which will be much worse at 2, 3 and even 4 degrees.
In order to do that, he says there are a number of solutions which have benefited him personally.
He added: “I have been personally protected from the worst ravages of the current cost of living crisis by having an electric vehicle, having solar panels and a heat pump - not using fossil fuels.
“Where is that kind of thought leadership of people who are flag bearers of change who can really lead to people shifting behaviour on a sustained basis to more more sustainable living?
“We need to get people putting up solar panels, deciding to take public transport or active transport options and where they can’t, use a battery electric vehicle.
“Thinking about the consequences of what they are eating - whether they need to travel to a long distance meeting, whether they can do it by zoom.
“It’s going to be the sum total of small behavioural changes [and] we need leaders in communities that show you can do it.”
The report highlights carbon capture as one possible solution, with some criticising its inclusion.”
Sara Shaw, Programme Coordinator at Friends of the Earth International, said: “It’s very alarming to see carbon dioxide removal featuring in the IPCC report. We can’t rely on risky, untested and downright dangerous removals technologies just because big polluters want us to stick to the status quo.
“A fair and fast phaseout of oil, gas and coal needs to happen in this decade, and it can, with the right political will.”
Peter admits: “It’s a technology we have no choice at this point but to pursue, but don’t put your chips on it because it’s unproven, technologically and economically at scale.
“There would be a very large difference between a world in which we continue to emit and eventually capture and store carbon and one in which we don’t emit in the first place.”
The report also says between 30-50% of Earth’s land, freshwater and ocean needs to be conserved.
Peter added: “That’s essential because without a healthy planet we do not have a sustainable future.
“Climate change is part of the broader problem of leaving a sustainable future to all.”
As for the Government, he says: “The Government needs to get serious about plugging the gap in net [zero].
“We need to be honest about how we are almost unique in a European context in having positive net emissions from land use.
“It is a result of over half a century of agricultural intensification and artificial land improvement, including drainage of peaty soils.
“We need to do this in a way that is a just transition, that protects farmers, farmers’ livelihoods [and] protects rural Ireland.
“It’s got to stop being a bun fight between environmental activists on one side and farmers on the other.
“Let’s get serious, let’s start having the difficult conversations, let’s find the solutions that protect rural Ireland and the livelihoods of rural Ireland but also protect our climate.”
Changes in the food sector, electricity, transport, industry, buildings and land-use can reduce greenhouse gas emissions while making it easier for people to lead low-carbon lifestyles, which will also improve health and wellbeing.
A better understanding of the consequences of overconsumption can help people make more informed choices, say the report's authors.
“Transformational changes are more likely to succeed where there is trust, where everyone works together to prioritise risk reduction, and where benefits and burdens are shared equitably,” said IPCC Chair Hoesung Lee.
“We live in a diverse world in which everyone has different responsibilities and different opportunities to bring about change. Some can do a lot while others will need support to help them manage the change.”
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