Iran is set to undergo a political transition following the death of President Raisi in a helicopter crash. Per Iran's constitution, First Vice President Mohammad Makhba will assume the role with the approval of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei. Within 50 days, a new leader will be elected, accelerating the presidential election scheduled for next year.
Raisi's passing comes at a challenging time for Iran, with low public participation in recent parliamentary elections and economic struggles. Makhba, known for his administrative background, will focus on managing economic policies amid high inflation and sanctions pressure.
While foreign policy direction is unlikely to change significantly, Raisi's death presents an opportunity for shifts in domestic politics. Conservative dominance may see pragmatic or left-leaning conservatives reemerge, potentially including figures like Ali Larijani and Mohammad Baqir Qalibaf.
The Guardian Council will vet and approve candidates for the upcoming election, shaping Iran's future direction. Additionally, Raisi's death raises questions about succession, with implications for the aging Supreme Leader Khamenei. The opaque nature of succession discussions leaves room for a more contested space within Iran's leadership.
Overall, Iran faces a period of transition and potential realignment in its political landscape, as it navigates the loss of President Raisi and contemplates future leadership scenarios.
