With just three days remaining until the Iowa caucuses, the impending snowstorm is causing campaigns to revise their event schedules and consider how to navigate the challenging weather conditions. The snowstorm sweeping across the state today is expected to bring life-threatening conditions, potentially leaving only two days for campaigning before the caucuses on Monday. Furthermore, on the day of the caucuses, temperatures are forecasted to plummet to between negative 20 and negative 40 degrees Fahrenheit, making it the coldest caucus in history.
Several candidates have already canceled their events due to the blizzard warning in effect until 6 p.m. today. Nikki Haley has replaced her events with telephone town halls, while Governor Ron DeSantis of Florida and Vivek Ramaswamy had not announced cancellations as of last night but faced challenges in traveling across the state due to the inclement weather.
The extreme cold weather is expected to impact voter turnout for the caucuses, which already tend to have relatively low participation rates. In 2016, the turnout was approximately 187,000 people. With temperatures as frigid as negative 20 degrees, motivating individuals to leave their homes and attend the caucuses becomes a significant challenge. This potentially low turnout injects uncertainty into a race that has appeared relatively stagnant recently.
Campaigns are actively urging their supporters to brave the cold and participate in the caucuses. Surrogates for Donald Trump, including Ben Carson, have been rallying his supporters, emphasizing the importance of turning out despite the weather conditions. Similarly, Haley, DeSantis, and Ramaswamy are encouraging their respective supporters to cast their votes on caucus day, even in the face of bitterly cold temperatures.
The structural nature of the caucuses, where participants gather inside a designated location (such as a high school gymnasium), rather than waiting in long lines outside, provides some relief from the harsh weather conditions. However, with Trump's large-scale rallies, where people often line up for entry, it remains uncertain how these events will be affected by the frigid temperatures.
The campaign of Nikki Haley has been particularly noticeable in its efforts to contest Iowa vigorously in recent weeks, suggesting a potential rise in support for her in both Iowa and New Hampshire. Her team, like others, faces the challenge of adapting their plans for the final stretch in light of the severe weather conditions.
As I sit in Des Moines, witnessing the fierce winter storm first-hand, the atmosphere is dominated by the howling wind and heavy snowfall. The weather undoubtedly adds an additional layer of complexity to an already intense and closely-watched political contest. Participants and campaigns alike must carefully strategize and adapt to both the weather conditions and the potential impact on voter turnout as the countdown to the Iowa caucuses rapidly approaches.
