As Formula 1's hectic silly season nears its conclusion, Haas' Kevin Magnussen and Sauber's Zhou Guanyu appear the most likely to miss out on a seat when the music stops.
Like Sauber team-mate Valtteri Bottas, Zhou is waiting for Carlos Sainz to announce his next move, but he can't turn to the kind of race-winning pedigree and experience that could land his veteran team-mate a seat at Williams or an extended stay at Sauber, which becomes Audi in 2026.
It is not impossible Zhou could somehow stay at Sauber too, and he's also an outside contender at Alpine, but he's below Sainz on the shortlist at both squads.
The opening at Haas appears to have closed, with Alpine exile Esteban Ocon widely expected to become Oliver Bearman's team-mate in 2025.
In an exclusive interview with Autosport, Zhou remains upbeat about his options, even if having his future effectively decided by Sainz is an uncomfortable place to be.
"I wouldn't say 100%, but I'd say there's a chance for me," Zhou told Autosport. "I just don't know exactly where because it depends where Carlos ends up."
Zhou's case isn't helped by Sauber's enduring struggles that have left it as the sole team without points at the halfway stage of the season.
The Swiss-based outfit had chances to score in the opening leg of the year, but issues with its pitstops and other reliability gremlins meant it didn't capitalise on those. And, once Sauber got its problems under control, it had already started lagging behind in the development race.
It had the slowest car of the field from Miami to Canada, and has only recently been able to mix it up again with the rest of the midfielders, missing out on the necessary qualifying pace to start races on the front foot.
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Amid those performance woes, Zhou too struggled with Sauber's new Imola chassis, but reverting to the original chassis has taken away some of the extreme sensitivity over bumpy circuits that affected the Chinese's driving style in particular.
Sauber's performance slump couldn't have come at a worse time as the 25-year-old fights for his F1 future, but he hopes teams have seen enough of him to give him another shot.
"On paper, it's difficult to see because it's been a tricky season but, in terms of driving, how I prepare myself, how I communicate with the team, I have definitely made a lot of progress and have been working better than before," he claimed.
"Everybody can see lot of telemetry and data, also listening to your radio during the race.
"If there's a problem, I have the feeling and very precise feedback to help the team's development.
"I'm always looking for every detail I can improve as a driver but, at the end of the day, the only thing you can do is give it everything you've got and see what the future brings."
At Sauber the focus of its senior management is fully on preparing Audi's works entry in 2026, which comes with factory power units and a significant investment from the German giant.
It seems inevitable that this long-term thinking is hindering short-term progress and hurting current drivers Bottas and Zhou.
Zhou admitted to "not seeing the benefits" for the team's current campaign yet, but said he understood Audi CEO Andreas Seidl needs to act now for the team to be in the strongest possible position in 2026.
"This is definitely a season where there's a lot of change going on, not just on the race track, but also back in the factory," Zhou said.
"There are people leaving and people coming in with new roles.
"If you look at the preparations for 2026, it is definitely beneficial. But, of course, I'm still living in this season and I don't see a benefit for this season, that's for sure - it doesn't make life easier for the season we're having.
"It's a tricky situation, but we knew it was going to happen at some point this year or next year, just because you can't really make changes in 2026, they have to happen before.
"But, from my side, I'm going to give everything. The comfort was back in Barcelona, I'm feeling a lot more motivated coming into a race weekend just because I felt very lost in those races since Imola.
"Now we have found a way around that which I'm really happy with. Things are back in the right direction and hopefully getting the results we needed. I need to improve qualifying, it's clear that's my main focus."
If 2024 does end up being Zhou's third and final F1 season, at least he will have realised two childhood dreams.
One was to become a Formula 1 driver, the other to race on home soil in China. Following an agonising pandemic-related wait, Zhou earned contract extensions to finally tick off the latter in April, leading to emotional scenes in Shanghai as a packed circuit greeted its hometown hero.
"That race was very emotional and the most amazing and proud moment in my whole career," Zhou said as he perked up.
"After giving everything for three years it would have been a real shame if I missed out without having finally getting a home race, but it finally happened.
"Places like Silverstone and Zandvoort were always very special for me, just to feel the crowd support their home heroes. Finally having that reception myself in China, or even more than that, it was just incredible.
"I felt so nervous because it was my home race and the first time out there driving a single-seater but, once I sat in the cockpit, I just felt the energy the whole crowd was giving me.
"I'm really happy that I was able to achieve every single part of this dream as a kid, but of course I want to go back to experience that again for many years and now I'm just thinking about my future.
"Let's see where I end up. I still stand a chance."
