U.S. intelligence agencies are examining how Iran would respond if President Donald Trump unilaterally declared victory in the two-month-old war and moved to pull back from aggressive action against Tehran, according to a new report.
The review, requested by senior administration officials, is aimed at understanding whether Tehran would treat such a declaration as a real off-ramp, a negotiating tactic, or a strategic win, Reuters reported, citing two U.S. officials and a person familiar with the matter. The Office of the Director of National Intelligence declined to comment, while the CIA said it was "not familiar with the intelligence community's reported assessment."
The discussions come as the White House faces mounting pressure over a war that began Feb. 28, has killed thousands, and has become a political liability ahead of the midterm elections. Reuters reported that U.S. agencies previously assessed that Iran would likely view a U.S. declaration of victory, paired with a drawdown of American forces, as its own win. If Trump declared victory but kept a heavy U.S. troop presence in the region, Iran would probably see it as leverage rather than the end of the war, the report added.
White House spokeswoman Anna Kelly told Reuters the United States is still negotiating with Iran and would "not be rushed into making a bad deal." She added: "The president will only enter into an agreement that puts U.S. national security first, and he has been clear that Iran can never possess a nuclear weapon."
The political cost is now central to the debate. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released last week found only 26% of respondents said the military campaign had been worth the costs, and only 25% said it had made the United States safer. A separate Reuters report said just 34% of Americans approve of the conflict, down from 36% in mid-April and 38% in mid-March.
A senior Pentagon official told lawmakers Wednesday that the war has cost $25 billion so far, the first official estimate of the conflict's military price tag. Jules Hurst, performing the duties of comptroller, said most of the money had gone toward munitions. The conflict has also killed 13 U.S. troops and wounded hundreds, according to Reuters.
One of the biggest pressure points remains the Strait of Hormuz. Reuters reported that at least six ships crossed the waterway in the previous 24 hours, compared with 125 to 140 daily passages before the war began. The disruption has driven up energy costs and gasoline prices, giving Iran leverage even during a fragile ceasefire that began on April 8.
Trump has kept military options on the table, including renewed strikes, but Reuters reported that large-scale options such as a ground invasion appear less likely than they did weeks ago. One White House official described domestic pressure to end the war as "enormous."
However, the president did tell Axios on Wednesday that he is maintaining the blockade of Iranian ports until a deal that addresses the U.S.'s concerns about the country's nuclear program is reached.
Trump said he rejected an Iranian proposal to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz without a nuclear deal. He said the ongoing blockade is "somewhat more effective than the bombing."
"They are choking like a stuffed pig. And it is going to be worse for them. They can't have a nuclear weapon," Trump said. "They want to settle. They don't want me to keep the blockade. I don't want to [lift the blockade], because I don't want them to have a nuclear weapon," he added.
