-
Pollsters can't agree on who's ahead, but they agree the race is a toss-up: AtlasIntel's newest survey gives Senator Flávio Bolsonaro a narrow edge, 47.2% to 46.8%, while a Datafolha poll taken the same week put President Lula back in front, 46% to 44% — both gaps sit inside each survey's margin of error.
- Jair Bolsonaro handed his son the family's political future from a hospital bed in December, five days after beginning a 27-year prison sentence that also bars him from running for office again until 2033.
-
Roughly 917,000 Brazilians abroad are cleared to vote for president only, and fresh data from the country's electoral court shows Boston has overtaken Miami as the largest Brazilian voting bloc in the United States.
Three weeks ago, Brazil's presidential race looked settled. Today it doesn't. A poll published Thursday by AtlasIntel for Bloomberg puts Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, whose father Jair remains behind bars after his own presidency, ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by less than half a percentage point in a simulated runoff, 47.2% to 46.8%. That gap sits comfortably inside the survey's one-point margin of error, meaning the contest remains, in strict statistical terms, a coin flip.
