I had pretty much this entire thing written but wasn’t quite in a position to post it late Monday night. Then the Indianapolis Colts benched Anthony Richardson and it felt like a different approach was needed. There has been a lot of discourse around this move in the football world, so I wanted to really dig in and see what this past game looked like.
Typically, we start with the passing chart, dig into some numbers, then look at a fun play from this past weekend. Instead of that, I thought we’d start with the passing chart, then just kind of roll through some of the film.
One of the main narratives I’ve seen from this game is that it wasn’t nearly as bad as the stats say. And, while I agree with that to some degree, there were issues that showed up in this game that have been with him all season, so I thought it was worth it to bring those up.
So, to kick things off, let’s look at Richardson’s passing chart from this game:
There is certainly some context that colors those numbers in a slightly better light, but a 31.3% completion percentage is not something you ever want to see. PFF has the Colts receivers charted with 2 drops on the game, but that’s remarkably charitable to the receivers even by PFF standards. I’d say there were 4-6 passes from Richardson that should have been caught but weren’t.
We’ll get to those, but we’ll start with Richardson. He has major issues with both his footwork and his timing, and those issues have led to a number of straight-up missed throws. His eyes are seeing things correctly, he knows where to go, but he just misses the throw.
Part of his issue is that it looks like his feet are sped-up on his drop, leading to him hitting the back foot of his drop earlier than expected. That leads to plays where he’s loaded up and ready to throw a beat before he’s supposed to be. He’ll get the coverage he’s looking for and the receiver will be open, but the timing is off, which leads to an inconsistent release.
Then you’ll have times where he is reading everything well, only for pressure to break through the pocket. On this play he initially navigates the pressure well – climbing through the pocket and finding room – only to panic once he breaks and make an off-platform throw to a spot where there’s little room for a complete pass. If Richardson takes a beat when he’s breaking through, he would see the better throw is to lay this up on the right for Alec Pierce to run under.
Then you have moments where Richardson reads everything right, throws a nice ball and the receiver just never sees it.
Or putting a ball up to a receiver on a vertical route, only to see it clang off hands and fall incomplete.
Richardson is still capable of some incredible feats on the football field. It’s a shame Adonai Mitchell couldn’t get his second foot down because Richardson uncorked a perfect throw midway through the 1st quarter with a flick of the wrist.
Or when he hangs in the pocket with 6’4”, 318lb Folorunso Fatukasi [91] running directly at his face and hitting a wide open Josh Downs for a TD.
The highs are high, but there’s a ton of inconsistency in Richardson’s game. Like I mentioned earlier, most of that seems to stem from footwork and timing on his dropback. Nothing is really tied together for him right now, leaving him to rely on his physical gifts to get the job done. And don’t get me wrong, he has some tremendous gifts, which is why we get the highs we get.
Unfortunately, that also means a healthy dose of inconsistency on a down-to-down basis. Even when he works within the rhythm of the offense, it’s just a little off. The timing isn’t quite right.
And then I see a chart like this, from RBSDM:
Richardson is keeping pretty lonely company with his -0.115 EPA per play and -14.6% CPOE (Completion Percentage Over Expected). His Success Rate (37.4%) is 3rd worst (just behind DeShaun Watson and Spencer Rattler) and his completion percentage (47.2%) is dead last in the league.
I will reiterate an earlier point: this isn’t entirely on Richardson. There are issues with the rest of the offense that have contributed to this to some extent. Drops, inconsistent routes and miscommunication have certainly played a part. That being said, Richardson’s issues are impossible to ignore at this point, even with the occasional eye-popping play.
Without being in the building, there’s no way to know the exact reason Richardson was benched after this week. It’s not simply because of his performance in this game, because a lot of the bad we saw this week is the exact same brand of bad we’ve been seeing this season. There hasn’t been any progression, but he also hasn’t gotten worse.
I’ll end with this, and it’s something I kind of touched on earlier: Richardson seems like a smart player. His eyes are in the right place, but the process to get it there clearly still needs a lot of work. I know it’s not as easy as simply saying, “here is what I would do,” because there are personalities and feelings and dynamics involved in these things that no one on the outside truly knows.
That being said, here is what I would do (fully acknowledging that I am working with incomplete information and don’t actually have to make the call or have these conversations face-to-face):
I would commit to sitting Richardson for the year. Joe Flacco is the starter, Sam Ehlinger is QB2 and Richardson is QB3. I’m treating this as a redshirt year. I know organizations don’t truly coach up mechanics that much in-season, but I’d look for ways to do that with Richardson, without the pressure of having to prepare for a game. Get his timing and footwork to a place where he can do it in his sleep. You need a 3 step drop that transitions to a 5 step concept to the backside? Drill that in. Get that portion of the game to be second nature for him.
If you still view Richardson as the future – and I absolutely would – I would make sure the mechanics are as smooth and automatic as possible. You know he can read a defense and uncork a ball 70 yards at a moment’s notice. Get him more consistent with the operation, with an eye on starting him Week 1 2025.
It’s true that he needs his reps, but he’s clearly not where he needs to be right now, and I don’t know that the negative in-game reps are helpful. Make it clear to him that he’s the starter next year, then get his operation buttoned-up. Slow the base part of his game down to where he doesn’t have to think about it. That’ll help with consistency, and they can unleash a (hopefully) fully operational weapon in 2025.
Albums listened to: Laura Marling – Patterns in Repeat; St. Vincent – All Born Screaming; Boygenius – The Record; John Carpenter – Lost Themes
