If you believed some Indian media coverage or supporters online, you would think that the home team is on the brink of disaster. After losing the third Border-Gavaskar Trophy match in Indore, criticisms have flowed: that the batting is broken, that no one can play spin any more, that the lower order papers over the cracks, that India’s spinners are no good after failing to bowl out Australia for 70, and especially that the preparation of turning pitches was a disaster waiting to happen, a tiger pit that India dug and then fell into themselves.
That’s an extensive list of diagnoses for a team that is leading the series 2-1, and has now lost a total of three home Tests in the last decade. A team that came back to win both series after the first two of those losses, and will most likely go on to win the current one. There is consternation about how India might fare in the fourth Test in Ahmedabad, and scolding about the dangers of shootout pitches – that is, surfaces where batting is so difficult that luck plays a greater part than skill. But the weight of statistical probability says that with the scales so sharply tilted by home advantage, home concern is unwarranted.
