India should avoid making early concessions in its ongoing trade negotiations with the US and instead adopt a patient approach, as Washington's current negotiating strategy relies on strategic uncertainty and issue-linking to maximise leverage, according to an SBI Ecowrap research report released on Friday.
The report, as quoted by ANI, said the US administration is using uncertainty not only in trade but also across issues including NATO, Iran, China and Greenland, making ambiguity itself a negotiating tool. In game theory terms, it described Washington as "preserving incomplete information about the 'type' of bargaining."
SBI Research said India occupies a distinct position in the global strategic landscape. Unlike NATO allies that rely heavily on US security guarantees or China, which has significant leverage through manufacturing, critical minerals and supply chains, India brings different strengths to the table.
These include its large domestic market, technology talent, pharmaceutical industry, defence procurement, energy options, diaspora influence and growing strategic role in the Indo-Pacific, the report said.
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Against this backdrop, SBI Research argued that India should avoid pressure for quick compromises and allow the US negotiating stance to evolve as domestic economic costs and geopolitical realities begin to influence Washington.
"India's best strategy... is to wear down the opening position, not the relationship. Keep the conversation warm, avoid public escalation, make limited and reversible offers, and wait for US administration first demand to run into U.S. market costs, China-balancing needs and alliance fatigue," the report said.
The report also said India should "test the resolve" of the US administration, even if that involves some short-term costs, arguing that doing so would strengthen India's long-term bargaining position.
Trade, defence and diplomacy increasingly linked
Beyond India-US trade, the report said the US is increasingly bundling trade, defence, security, strategic resources and diplomacy into a single negotiating framework instead of treating them as separate issues.
According to SBI Research, the US administration first announces strong tariff measures, observes market and government reactions, and then adjusts or sequences its final policy to maximise negotiating gains.
The report cited NATO as an example of this approach, saying Washington has made alliance commitments more conditional by linking defence spending with broader strategic alignment.
Referring to NATO's latest defence spending target, the report said Spain's resistance has been treated not just as a budget issue but also as a test of political alignment with US strategic priorities.
"NATO was built to make security predictable. US administration's intervention is that it has made predictability more conditional. Protection is presented as something allies must keep financing, demonstrating and politically sustaining," the report said.
SBI Research cautioned that while this strategy may deliver short-term negotiating advantages for Washington, repeated reliance on uncertainty could weaken long-term credibility and trust among allies, partners and markets.
The report concluded that India should maintain its negotiating position, preserve the bilateral relationship and leverage its growing economic and strategic importance while waiting for a more favourable bargaining environment.
