India’s stronger-than-expected inflation reading for June has left policymakers facing a more uncertain outlook, with renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz threatening to push up oil prices and a developing El Niño raising the risk of higher food costs.
Consumer prices rose 4.38% from a year earlier in June — rising above the Reserve Bank of India’s target for the first time in nearly a year and a half as higher food and fuel costs filtered through the economy. Yet, a majority of economists expect the central bank to keep rates at 5.25% in 2026, saying there’s still little evidence price pressures are broadening.
