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ABC News
ABC News
National
state political reporter Richard Willingham

Independent candidates take on high-profile Liberals in Victorian state election, but can the 'teal wave' be recreated?

It wasn't quite full, but hundreds of Liberal supporters filled the Hawthorn Arts Centre last Sunday morning to cheer John Pesutto's quest to take back a once-prized Liberal seat.

Inside the classic Victorian building, he had the audience in the palm of his hand.

This may have just been an individual launch for the seat of Hawthorn, but the message was much larger. This was about future leadership and the direction of the Liberal Party.

"Let's make this happen,'' Mr Pesutto yelled to a standing ovation that featured former Premier Ted Baillieu and a swathe of past and present MPs including Josh Frydenberg, Tim Wilson and Katie Allen.

Less than 12 months ago, political supporters wearing teal T-shirts filled the same hall to launch Monique Ryan's campaign.

The success of Dr Ryan and like-minded "teal" independents across formerly blue-ribbon seats has spurred another wave of community independents contesting next month's state election.

But without a federal Liberal government to campaign against, will the teals have as much success at the local level?

Federal 'teal wave' areas in state sights

It's of little surprise that there's strong campaigns in Kew and Hawthorn, which sit within Kooyong, the Liberal jewel lost by then-treasurer Frydenberg in May.

Dr Ryan has been openly supportive of their campaigns.

Hawthorn fell to Labor at the 2018 state election, a harbinger for the Liberals' federal fate four years later. Mr Pesutto infamously learnt he was losing his seat while on the ABC election telecast.

On the face of it, Mr Pesutto is trying to win the seat back off Labor's John Kennedy.

But the ALP is allocating scant resources to Hawthorn, which is not a target seat.

The biggest challenger to Mr Pesutto is Melissa Lowe, a Swinburne University manager running for the seat using familiar teal branding.

The "community independent" is one of a number of candidates to receive a grassroots donations and be endorsed by Simon Holmes a Court's Climate 200 group.

So far, Climate 200 is directing supporters to donate to candidates in Hawthorn, Kew, Caulfield and Mornington.

Other community-backed candidates — less aligned with the teal platform — are also running across the state, including in Melbourne's bayside where Zoe Daniel won Goldstein off the Liberals at the election.

Victoria's donation laws mean financial contributions are capped at $4,320 per organisation or person to each campaign.

Political experts say this could put the handbrake on their efforts.

But the movement has a wide reach and a network of volunteers, who are energised and enthusiastic after stirring wins in May.

And because the movements are contained to a handful of seats, it makes gathering volunteers easier – even though some do not reside locally.

Teals face familiar accusations of not being independent

The shared purpose, common issues — climate action, integrity in politics and gender equality — and similar branding among independents has prompted accusations that the teal independents are in fact a party.

"Whether they are a party or not may not be the main issue, it's a question of whether it's a single operation, I suppose there is a question about that,'' Mr Pesutto said at his launch.

Mornington independent Kate Lardner dismisses talk she's a member of a party, saying the movement is similar to any other social justice cause where like-minded groups work towards a shared goal.

"The movement is exactly that: it's a movement. So, it's people with aligned values, striving to achieve a shared vision,'' Dr Lardner said.

"I certainly haven't personally reached out to any of the teal candidates, and we don't, you know, work together so in that sense, it's not a party. It's more about achieving a better way of doing politics."

For Mr Pesutto, his pitch to voters is both on local issues and reminding the public that the Liberals are a party of government.

"Ultimately, you have to govern. You have to make decisions about how you are going to get the budget under control to make sure we cut out those blow outs so that schools and hospitals and child protection services are not losing out and I'm finding that message does resonate,'' he said.

Liberals are upbeat about Mr Pesutto's chances, but they're most anxious about Kew — where those backing the teal movement are most confident.

"I was inspired by what happened in the federal election and how the independents sort of paved the way,'' candidate Sophie Torney said.

"There's a new era of politics around and I think it's really good. I think it's really healthy for democracy."

Like other teal independents, Ms Torney rattles off climate action, gender equality and integrity as her community's priorities for this election.

She says the Liberals have been complacent in Kew.

Candidates operating in different dynamic at the state level

The Victorian election is the first test of whether the teals can spread beyond the federal parliament, but it's a very different dynamic.

Victoria has had a long history of independent MPs, but not in an organised movement.

And unlike during the federal vote, there's not a nine-year-old Liberal government with high-profile MPs to campaign against.

Monash University's Dr Zareh Ghazarian said there was potential for the teals to establish themselves in the party system, but warned there were major differences to the federal election, including the cap on donations.

"We saw the teals campaign really effectively on climate change and integrity and that really resonated with people that previously voted Liberal but were frustrated with them. I'm not sure that exists at the state level,'' Dr Ghazarian said.

"The political debate at the state level is different from the federal election, it's been dominated by infrastructure, health and service delivery, so the question is how do the teals position themselves in that debate?"

In Kew, the campaign for Ms Torney is hoping to leverage off the performance of retiring Tim Smith, who was forced out of the parliament by his own colleagues after he crashed his car into a Hawthorn home while drink driving.

His Liberal replacement Jess Wilson wouldn't be drawn on whether the teals were members of a party and she did not want to be focus on Ms Torney's campaign.

"I'm focused on what the Liberal Party can deliver. And what's absolutely clear at this election is that people want to see the end of the Andrews Labor government,'' Ms Wilson said.

"And the only way to do that is to put in place the Liberal government."

On Tuesday, Opposition Leader Matthew Guy confirmed that a Coalition government would amend the equal opportunity act to give faith-based schools protection to hire people based on their religion and beliefs.

"That's a common-sense thing to do,'' Mr Guy said.

It's the type of issue the teals are keen to use to paint the Liberals as too conservative, and it was quickly seized on by the Hawthorn teal candidate Ms Lowe.

It's a sign of things to come as the November 26 election draws closer.

The teal contests are a new front for all political parties and with some experts predicting a minority government, their victory could be powerful.

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