DALLAS — Republicans on Tuesday — and to a lesser degree Democrats — were on the path to nominating candidates on the edges of the Texas electorate, which could lead to more ultra-conservative policy decisions and voters in the political middle without clout.
“It makes it all the more difficult for compromises to be made in legislatures and for policies that are closer to the preferences of the average American voter,” said Rice political scientist Mark Jones. “The preferences of the extremes on each side tend to get better represented in our legislature and executive branches than do the positions of the majority in the center.”
Since Republicans are in power, their primaries are more critical in formulating statewide public policy. But moderate Democrats are trying to make sure that their away-from-center candidates don’t impact the struggle to climb back into power.
“In Texas, because Republicans dominate, and we steer further to the right than where the average voter is located,” Jones said.
Democratic strategist Harold Cook said primaries often lead to extremes.
“The nutbag is going to win the primary on the Republican side,” he said. “Democrats might have the same problem, except that it’s a big diverse state and the Democratic Party is still big and diverse, so it really kind of depends on where you are in the state to determine what side is going to prevail.”
“In South Central Texas, the most radical left candidate is probably going to win, but that’s not necessarily true in counties in far West Texas or on the border, " Cook continued. “It will be the moderate who wins the primary in a lot of cases.”
Candidates far from the middle were featured in several statewide and local races, including the Republican contest for Texas attorney general.
In that primary, incumbent Ken Paxton, saddled with a 2015 indictment on securities fraud, as well as an FBI investigation into allegations of bribery and corruption, cruised to a first-place finish over Land Commissioner George P. Bush, former Supreme Court Justice Eva Guzman and U.S. Rep. Louie Gohmert.
Polls show that a plurality of Republican primary voters don’t care enough about Paxton’s legal problems to vote him out of office. They like his ultra-conservative credentials and unabashed support of former President Donald Trump, who endorsed him.
Guzman and Bush are considered traditional conservatives and both talk about Republican-favored issues like securing the nation’s southern border and election reform. Still, Paxton is viewed by many as the better conservative.
“If Republican primary voters overwhelmingly opt for Paxton in spite of his myriad of ethical and legal problems, and or Louie Gohmert, in spite of his ties to the January 6 insurrection and his relatively extreme rhetoric at times, that sends a signal,” said Jones, the Rice political scientist. “If Republicans wanted a more traditional conservative, George P. Bush or Eva Guzman would provide that. If they’re willing to vote for deeply flawed candidates solely because they are the most conservative, then that tells us something as well.”
Guzman and Bush were locked in the race for second place and a runoff with Paxton, which could change the dynamic of that race.
Eric Cedillo, an adjunct professor at SMU, agreed that the attorney general’s race was an example of the vanishing middle.
“”It’s a situation where folks like Bush, with some of the campaign assertions in terms of building the wall and other things that you wouldn’t necessarily hear from a Bush in the past, is kind of rearing its head in terms of going as far right as possible,” Cedillo said. “People in the middle are being nudged out.”
The primary race for governor was an easy win for Texas Gov. Greg Abbott, but critics worry that rivals like former state Sen. Donald Huffines and former Texas GOP chairman Allen West managed to push the governor too far to the right, particularly during last year’s legislative session.
Lawmakers produced a myriad of conservative legislation that Abbott approved, including an elections bill that critics contend was unnecessary and designed to mollify Trump, who claimed without evidence that the 2020 elections was stolen from him. The legislature also approved the most restrictive abortion law in the nation, a ban on critical race theory and –against the wishes of law enforcement leaders – a law that allows residents to carry a gun without a license.
In contrast, Abbott is casting his general election rival, former U.S. Beto O’Rourke, as too liberal for Texas, citing his immigration policies and proposal to confiscate assault-style weapons.
Republican political consultant Matthew Langston said Republican voters have more on their minds than ideology. They are looking to oust Democrats on all levels, including President Joe Biden.
“In an election cycle like this, when you have Joe Biden sitting in the presidency and a ton of frustration and friction within the electorate on Donald Trump, the voters are looking to the general election,” Langston said.
Trump was a factor, and the former president celebrated Texas results Tuesday night.
“Big night in Texas! All 33 candidates that were Trump endorsed have either won their primary election or are substantially leading in the case of a runoff,” Trump emailed supporters. Trump actually endorsed 37 candidates.
Moderate Democrats under threat
Democrats want to win as well. At times their efforts are hampered by some elected officials and candidates who advocate far left policies on the environment and other issues, like “defunding the police.”
Republicans, including Abbott, are already warning the Democrats want to defund the police, which irks moderates who say that view doesn’t represent most of the party.
“It’s really difficult as a party because they are so good at message discipline and as Democrats we aren’t great at this message discipline,” said Democratic strategist Lillian Salerno, a former appointee in Barack Obama’s presidential administration. “Most Democrats are not about defunding the police. They are about bread and butter issues, kitchen table issues like education, jobs and helping working families.”
Moderate elected Democrats could be on the verge of watching ultra-progressives join their ranks. In central Texas’ Congressional District 28, Jessica Cisneros, an immigration attorney who is backed by U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren and U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, is challenging incumbent, moderate Democrat Henry Cuellar.
That race was too close to call late Tuesday night.
Salerno suggested changing the primary system to allow “rank-choice voting,” which was recently used in New York. It requires voters rank candidates by preference on their ballots. If a candidate wins a majority of first-preference votes, he or she is declared the winner.
“We have to have something that makes it so everybody feels represented,” Salerno said. “Right now 15% on one side and 15% on the other side feels represented. Meanwhile 70% of us feel like we don’t have any party.”
Local races feature candidates far from the middle
It’s not only statewide or congressional races where candidates far from center can thrive.
Local county primaries are the scene of battles between far right and traditional conservatives. In Fort Worth, former Tarrant County GOP chairman Tim O’Hare, who is backed by Trump, was ahead of former Fort Worth Mayor Betsy Price, who was seen as a popular mayor but must now prove her conservative bonafides.
In Dallas County, conservative Lauren Davis defeated Dallas ISD trustee Edwin Flores.
Both O’Hare and Davis are trying to lead urban counties filled with moderate voters.
“Tarrant County actually provides a pretty interesting race for the county judge between Tim O’Hare and Betsy Price,” Jones said. “You can get a centrist, pragmatic conservative like Price or someone who’s presenting himself as an unabashed Freedom Caucus conservative type. That kind of captures it.”
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