IFS: budget will be ‘work of fiction’ without clear plan to cover UK’s £35bn spending pressures

Compensating for the inflation shock, and funding the pledge to raise defence spending to 3% of GDP by 2030, would require tax rises or benefit cuts of about £35bn. Photograph: UK MOD Crown copyright/Royal Navy/Reuters

John Healey has been warned by Britain’s leading tax and spending experts that his budget risks being a “work of fiction” unless he sets out plans to cover £35bn in spending pressures.

As the war in the Middle East rattles the public finances, the Institute for Fiscal Studies (IFS) said the damage from higher inflation meant the chancellor would need to either top up funds for his current government spending plans or impose deep real-terms cuts by the end of the decade.