It's happening: Good morning, there's an election taking place today.
god i'm so excited to spend the next 36 hours straight looking at maps, watching numbers on graphs change, and reading posts about the maps and graphs from my friends on the computer
— cold ???? (@coldhealing) November 5, 2024
The great news is that someone will lose. Or will they? Nate Silver and other pollsters are predicting the final result being shockingly close, with some odds of a tie: "After 80,000 simulations, Kamala Harris won the Electoral College in…40,012 of them, or 50.015 percent," writes Silver. "The remaining 39,988 were split between Trump (39,718) and no majority—a 269-269 tie—which practically speaking would probably be resolved for Trump in the U.S. House."
"In 6 of the 7 key swing states, our final polling average is within 1.2 points; the only one with something resembling a clear lead is Arizona for Trump," notes Silver. "But even there, some polls show Harris leading amidst evidence of a late rebound for her with Latino voters. And Harris has closed comparatively strongly in Wisconsin and Michigan."
Nobody knows how it will shake out, and after the turbulence at the beginning of the campaign cycle that led to Harris ascending in Joe Biden's stead, the campaigns have proceeded mostly like you would have expected: policy-lite, lots of Trump bluster, plenty of Biden-admin-related revisionism, both teams clumsily attempting to figure out how to message on inflation and border. The Dem strategists seemed to have mostly recovered from the wokeness fever that gripped 2020 (and proved unsuccessful at persuading moderates) and we were all probably better for it.
The civil war memes have abounded (see here and here) and The New Yorker published a long feature on the Americans prepping for a descent into political violence. But no matter how this election shakes out, the doomer cosplayers are probably wrong, and we will still have a country at the end of it. A stupid country, full of government-spending-born inflation and violations of our civil liberties and the theft we're supposed to politely call taxation, but a country nonetheless.
"A republic if you can keep it," said Benjamin Franklin in 1787, on the last day of the Constitutional Convention, in response to a question as to whether they'd gone for played-out monarchy or been able to negotiate something better: a republic. It's a corny thing to quote, and even to think about, but I'm leaning in, damn it. This ole country we've got here is a great thing worth keeping, and that wholly transcends who wins or loses today. This is a country where upward mobility is possible for even the poorest newcomer, where you are allowed to worship freely and devoutly, where we've adopted a certain cultural friendliness to help us manage the turbulence of pluralism. We spend each day cooperating with those who are, in many cases, quite unlike us (more so if you live in a large city), mediated by the exchange of money and goods and pleasantries. We get to start businesses, stockpile guns, homeschool our kids, all with some permissions from the state, but by and large far more freedom than almost any other country allows.
None of it is perfect, but the essentials for a good life are more easily gotten here than almost any other place. And, perhaps just as importantly, the freedom to define what a good life looks like to you is freely granted here. It's all a gift—and it's very much worth keeping.
Scenes from New York: Let's help our brethren win (or lose) some dough.
DO NOT SAY, 'My vote doesn't matter' if you live in a state that is very red or very blue. That's just not true!
Hundreds of millions have been bet on the winner of the popular vote, and those gamblers and speculators are counting on you.
Do your part tomorrow.
— Andy Molitor (@AndyMSFW) November 4, 2024
QUICK HITS
- "Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump have tied in the Dixville Notch midnight vote kicking off the official start to 2024's Election Day," reports ABC News. "Following the national trends, indicating a very close race, Harris and Trump each garnered three votes between the six registered voters in Dixville Notch, a small New Hampshire north country town."
- Surprising literally no one, Joe Rogan endorsed Donald Trump.
- "Your moral core is magnificent," Whoopi Goldberg tells…wait for it…Liz Cheney! (Depends on how you feel about hawks.)
- An economist's breakdown of a misinterpreted chart about working class wages and increased migration.
- Please make it stop:
I love this person with all my heart.????????????????????????
— Taken in Asheville, North Carolina???? pic.twitter.com/U299JPc9H5— #RandyResistING Authoritarianism (@RandyResist) November 3, 2024
- I feel like this has actually been easy for most of us to do, with perhaps Stormy as one of the few exceptions:
Stormy Daniels says she wants to keep Trump out of "our bedrooms."pic.twitter.com/3I0FYaNIAF
— Defiant World (@DefiantWorld) November 4, 2024
- lol:
Trump is going on a hero's journey where he has befriended all his former enemies - in reverse order. Megyn was the last one.
And she was also his very first target, during the August 2015 primary debate in Detroit.
It's poetic. https://t.co/NSunH82Wx8
— Max Meyer (@mualphaxi) November 5, 2024
- This would be an absurd outcome:
plot twist: Trump loses but wins the popular vote and we read a million opinion pieces about how actually the Electoral College saved democracy pic.twitter.com/GWfQdzrWVb
— Matthew Walther (@matthewwalther) November 4, 2024
The post If You Can Keep It appeared first on Reason.com.
