When the people of the UK voted to leave the EU there was an explosion of support for Welsh independence.
YesCymru's membership soared and the issue was catapulted into the mainstream following several high profile marches and a rapidly growing social media presence. For many, their support for Welsh independence is, at least in part, down to a desire to reclaim their lost EU citizenship.
I have just spent the last 18 months immersed in the topic of Welsh independence researching for my new book, Independent Nation: Should Wales Leave the UK? . This is essentially a guide for people in Wales to form their own opinion on Welsh independence using impartial information. You can get more politics news and other story updates straight to your inbox by subscribing to our newsletters here.
I was shocked during my research, just how many people's support for independence was predicated on an independent Wales eventually joining the EU. This isn't to say that this is a the majority motivator, it isn't. Just that for a significant minority, regaining their EU citizenship is a really big deal. However there are some issues with this that it's important to break down. To do this I have included some (but by no means all) key points from the book below to help spark an informed debate on the issue.
Independent Nation by Will Hayward published by Biteback Publishing for £20. Buy your copy here for only £15.99 using promo code WO15.
Do we even need to talk about this?
There is actually a strong argument that we don't really need to discuss Wales joining the EU when discussing Welsh independence because that decision will be for an independent Wales to make. This is a legitimate argument. However, so many people are basing their support for indy on EU membership that it needs talking about. Plus, when discussing economics, many independence supporters point to EU membership as a way of bolstering the Welsh economy, so it seems fair to discuss it.
Time scales
Let’s imagine the timescales that would be involved if independence was to be the route back to EU membership for the people of Wales. Plaid Cymru have said they would hold an indicative referendum in the first term if they won a Senedd majority then a full referendum in the second term.
Say Wales voted to leave the UK in ten years’ time (which is an insanely rapid time frame). So, in 2032 a referendum was held and Wales voted to leave. It would not be independent the next day, and frankly it would be madness to try to be. Given that it took the UK four and a half years in total to leave the EU after the referendum, it will likely take Wales longer than this, given how much more intricately entwined it is with the UK.
Even if these negotiations were simpler than anyone can imagine (they won’t be), it still seems likely it would be at the very least half a decade before Wales actually left (and there are strong arguments for a very long transition period). So, it will be 2037 before Wales leaves.
The idea that the first thing an independent Wales would look to do upon becoming independent is apply to become an EU member state stretches credulity. You would have to go through the accession process, which may be quick but may also take longer if Wales doesn’t agree to join the euro. There would need to be a referendum on EU membership (which would not even necessarily be won). Even being optimistic, it wouldn’t be crazy to think that it would be twenty-five years before the people of Wales got their EU membership back.
Now, this isn’t to say it would not be worth the wait, just that if your main rationale for Welsh independence is EU membership, you are facing a quarter of a century wait. In the previous 25 years the EU has changed beyond recognition so you are likely campaigning for Welsh independence to join an organisation that will be totally different from what we have now.
Sovereignty and representation
If you want Welsh independence because you believe that major decisions should be made as close as possible to the people affected by said decisions, that is a perfectly legitimate argument. However, if you plan on taking this new-found power and immediately ceding it to an organisation based out of Brussels, there would seem to be an inconsistency here.
If your issue with the UK is lack of representation and that the way Wales votes is rarely reflected in Westminster, then why would you be happy with taking this fresh autonomy and giving a huge part of it to an even larger organisation?
You could say the same with accountability. The current UK system falls woefully short on that issue when it comes to its elected representatives, but the EU has a democratic deficit of its own. If you were furious at proposals to cut the number of Welsh MPs in Westminster from forty to thirty-two (announced under the latest boundary changes), why are you excited to give your newly won sovereignty and representation to an EU Parliament where you will likely only have five MEPs?
Independent Nation by Will Hayward published by Biteback Publishing for £20.
Buy your copy here for only £15.99 using promo code WO15.
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- Governance in Wales is a convoluted mess that needs to be fixed
