Judging by the polls and by May’s local elections, things aren’t looking too clever for the Conservatives. No surprise, then, that talk is already turning to what will happen to them should they go down to nationwide defeat in 2024, with speculation centred on who might take over from Rishi Sunak.
But the direction the party will take if it loses next year, and who it will pick to lead it in opposition, is ultimately going to depend on just how many Tory MPs hang on to their seats in the wake of such a defeat – and who they are. And that, in turn, might depend on quite how heavy that defeat turns out to be.
