Israel's longest-serving prime minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, faces a consequential election on Tuesday, which is the first national vote since the Hamas-led attack of October 7, 2023, and the wars that followed in Gaza, Lebanon and, most importantly, Iran. Netanyahu has used Trump's endorsement to argue that only his leadership could secure further US action against Iran. Trump has called on Israelis to re-elect him, saying the two countries had to finish the job they started in February.
But the immediate military picture is more complicated. Major fighting has been suspended for months while the United States and Iran remain locked in a confrontation over sanctions, oil exports and the Strait of Hormuz. A Netanyahu defeat could weaken the political push for renewed Israeli strikes, although it would not automatically remove the threat of another US-Iran war.
