Mathieu van der Poel took a jubilant solo victory in the 2023 men’s edition of Paris-Roubaix, but had it not been for a puncture on the Carrefour de l'Arbre he may have had to battle Wout van Aert for the final sprint.
Van Aert punctured in the final kilometre of the infamous Carrefour de l'Arbre, just as he was making what he hoped could be a race-winning attack.
He was forced to stop just beyond the sector for a wheel change, allowing Van der Poel - the only riders able to follow his acceleration - to ride the last 15km to the finish solo.
In the post-race press conference, Van der Poel acknowledged the critical cost of Van Aert’s flat tyre. "If he didn't have the flat tyre, I imagine we do go to the velodrome together," the Dutch winner conceded.
Van Aert was similarly confident that the final situation in the race would have been different had the misfortune not occurred at such a critical point in the race.
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"You never know how it turns out, but the moment I flatted I was just attacking," Van Aert said following the race.
"I took the left hand around the Carrefour and then almost slid away because my rear tyre flatted. So yeah, the whole last kilometre of the sector was already on a flat tyre.
"I was actually myself and feeling really strong, and even on a flat rear tyre I finished the sector almost on his wheel. So I think that I had the legs to do more for sure."
Van Aert mounted an aggressive chase into the Roubaix Velodrome despite the considerable margin established by the wheel change. He dropeed the likes of Filippo Ganna, Mads Pedersen, and Stefan Kung but was unable to shake off Van der Poel's teammate Jasper Philipsen, who picked him off in the sprint for second place.
"It ain't over until it's over,” Van Aert said with a smile after the race. “I mean it’s not because I have a flat tyre on the Carrefour that the race is already over, and I try to keep my head cool and I fight all the way to the finish.
“Maybe I was also the only one in the group really still fighting for the win and not riding for second place, so I’m happy that I'm on the podium.
"It’s unfortunate it could have been a different final of course," he added. "Imagine Mathieu has a flat tyre on the front and you've already given up after your own flat tyre. That would be a shame, and also doesn't make sense to give up straight away because there’s still a nice result left. I think just how I am, I just want to leave it on the road and see the result afterwards."
Luck doesn't shine on Jumbo-Visma
Misfortune was the story of the day for Jumbo-Visma. Van Aert had already punctured, without consequence earlier in the race, but the Trouée d'Arenberg did not look kindly upon the Dutch team.
Christophe Laporte was dropped from the lead group that Van Aert had just forced clear, following a flat tyre in the fearsome cobbled sector, while defending champion Dylan van Baarle crashed out in the group behind.
"It's a classic Roubaix scenario. [It] looks like you're doing a good move, and suddenly in two minutes, everything shakes upside down," Van Aert said.
“It would have been better of course with maybe one extra guy in front with us. But still me and Christophe were there in a small group. And yeah, suddenly after Arenberg I saw Christophe wasn't there anymore. At the moment I didn't know of course, I assumed he had a mechanical but it was unclear. It was also unclear how far he was behind."
Suddenly Van Aert was isolated while Van der Poel had two Alpecin–Deceuninck teammates supporting him in the race’s main 12-man break. His isolation offered him the advantage of not having to work within the break, putting more pressure on the Van der Poel's team to fend off the main peloton.
"I tried to stay calm and then in the back, I think my teammates kept on trying to put pressure, and so it was not my responsibility to keep the break going,” Van Aert recounted.
“In the end, it was good for me, but in the moment I choose to attack, I flatted."
Paris-Roubaix marks the end of Van Aert’s classic season, as he’ll now turn his attention to the team’s summer of races. He left Paris-Roubaix on a positive note, reflecting on the race and the wider Classics season as a success.
"I think every race is historic and that would be really a shame to call this a failure. I mean, how we raced makes me proud."
'A lot of bad luck in crucial moments'
While Van Aert was speaking in the press conference after the race, outside the Jumbo-Visma team bus, directeur sportif Arthur van Dongen told Cyclingnews that yes, bad luck strikes many at Paris-Roubaix, but that the misfortune hit them at crucial moments.
"For sure, we are disappointed today because we were hit by a lot of bad luck in crucial moments," Van Dongen said. "Other teams has also a lot of bad luck but this was in really crucial moments and that makes the difference in the end that we couldn't sprint for the victory on the velodrome.
"We lose Dylan van Baarle in the Arenberg and then we lost Christophe Laporte in the front of the race with a puncture. Those were really crucial decisive moments."
Van Dongen said that Van Baarle – listed in the post-race injury report as having suffered a 'cranial trauma' and 'forehead wound' – was being checked over in Valenciennes hospital, but should be OK, while he also stated that Laporte's puncture was unrelated to their new tyre-pressure system.
Though the two secondary leaders lost contact with the front of the race, the team were still able to change tack with revised tactics, and they still had Van Aert in the elite lead group of seven, too – at least before disaster struck on the Carrefour de l'Arbre.
"Then we could put some pressure on the leading group with Nathan Van Hooydonck and Christophe so that Wout could hang on for most of the time," Van Dongen said, referring to the counter-attack that launched 20km after Arenberg.
"But in the end [Wout] attacked and you saw what happened. It was really disappointing.
"He was still really fresh, and he attacked on that last cobbled sector in Roubaix and dropped Mads Pedersen. Wout was still really good."
