The CIA has reportedly warned several countries that Russia is preparing to launch hybrid operations across the Mediterranean Sea. But is the risk real, or is it a form of cyber warfare?
Several countries across the Mediterranean have reportedly been informed by the CIA of a possible imminent Russian operation, according to an investigation published by Spanish daily El Mundo on September 24.
American intelligence suggests the plan would involve drones launched from Russian vessels disguised as commercial ships and directed towards Spain, Italy and even France, the newspaper reported.
Russian Gerbera drones in the Mediterranean?
The report details the use of a specific type of drone: the Gerbera, which is smaller and lighter than the Shahed or Geran systems deployed and causing extensive damage in Ukraine.
A merchant ship crossing the Med could carry several Gerberas aboard, taking between one-and-a-quarter to two hours to reach the Italian, Spanish or French coasts. But the size of the device would render the weapons incapable of delivering significant ammunition.
Instead, the likely objective would be to surprise through unexpected attack, or to cause light damage upon impact, explained the El Mundo report, citing Lithuanian officials familiar with the information obtained by the CIA.
However, in an interview with TF1 and France 2 on Thursday evening, French President Emmanuel Macron contradicted the Spanish report, claiming to know nothing about Russia’s plans and sharing that the CIA had not informed the French authorities about any potential attack.
Ambiguous tactics
And herein lies the problem: experts highlight the ambiguity at the core of such revelations.
Mark Lacy, a specialist in Russian hybrid warfare at Lancaster University, explained the move by Russia could be an act – a manipulative tactic of cognitive and psychological warfare: “An important tactic of hybrid war or ‘the grey zone’ is what we call cognitive warfare or psychological warfare … it’s about the perception of what’s occurring.”
And both Russia – as well as the Western countries supporting Ukraine – could use this to their advantage.
Indeed, according to Lacy it seems that Russia may have deliberately conveyed plans to extend its hybrid campaign into the Mediterranean, without ever intending to act. He explained that the goal of Russia is to sow the seeds of doubt and panic – and at times, threat can be more effective than execution. “It’s in the interest of … Putin… to manufacture uncertainty.”
As for Western nations, he added, “The military and the government have an interest in making it look like we’re taking this threat seriously as a way of deterring Putin from actually doing anything.”
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‘Strike when least expected’ – Russia
Mario Baumann, an expert in the Russian threat on Europe at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP), considers the theory around a potential Russian hybrid attack on the Mediterranean to be “absolutely possible”.
His rationale is that, although drone attacks, munitions factory raids and other strategic warfare moves so far have primarily concerned countries in northern and central Europe, in reality, the whole continent is affected, and as such, Spain, Italy and France are not spared. “European unity is … from the Russian perspective, a big problem because [it] is at the basis of sanctions.”
He pointed to previous incidents. In Spain, back in 2017, Russia was accused of actively supporting the Catalan independence movement with the aim of splitting the nation. Then in 2024, Russian agents were suspected of cyberattacks across online banking sites and other digital infrastructure. Meanwhile in France, several events – including vandalism in May 2024 of the Holocaust Memorial in Paris, which saw dozens of red hands painted around its perimeter – have been attributed to Russia. Following the incident, four Bulgarians were sentenced to two-four years in prison amid suspicions of Russian-linked foreign interference and antisemitic motives.
“Russia will always choose the points where we don't expect it,” Baumann said. In which case, it could be an opportune moment to target Southern Europe while all eyes are fixed on Poland, Germany and the Baltic states, he added.
Southern European countries represent Europe’s “weak point” when it comes to hybrid threats, the report by El Mundo detailed.
It is already challenging to defend against this style of attack in countries like Poland or Germany, in spite of them having dealt with similar incidents for some time, explained Berlin-based Julian Pawlak, a maritime security specialist at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs (SWP). He explained the situation is likely to be even more complicated for nations where the perception of danger is lower.
Drones: the ideal weapon for inciting paranoia
The recent developments are all the more timely for these three target countries, given that they face major elections in 2027, underlined Christian Kaunert, an expert in maritime security and hybrid operation at the University of South Wales in Cardiff. The French presidential election will take place next April and May, followed by Spain heading to the polls in August, while Italy is due to hold elections before autumn 2027.
According to the experts interviewed, electoral interference is a key theme amid Russian hybrid warfare. The goal is to instil “a sense of fear and anxiety” among the population, Baumann noted. As a result, continued Western political support for Ukraine could come at a real cost to voters – who might be persuaded to vote for parties such as the Alternative for Germany (AfD) in Germany, which seeks to reduce aid to Ukraine.
For the moment, Spain and Italy are among the countries with the least sense of direct impact from Russian threats, observed Lacy. By targeting these Mediterranean nations going forwards, Moscow may be able to see its aspirations come to fruition by the upcoming elections.
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And drones are particularly efficient instruments in this regard. He explained they provide ideal technology to generate paranoia. Whether they are used to fly over airports or cut underwater cables, these assets make it possible to expand the range of threat – even among those countries that consider themselves immune to such threat.
But of course, to succeed, access to the Mediterranean Sea is vital. The Russians have already been accused of launching drones from ships in the North Sea, said Pawlak. He noted that, given that Europe is aware of Russia’s capabilities, Southern Europe’s last line of defence is fast disappearing.
Kaunert acknowledged how things had become more difficult for Russia since its war with Ukraine. As a result, the Russian fleet has less freedom of movement in this region.
But it is not an insurmountable obstacle. Moscow could outsource some of the logistical challenges. Russian agents could conspire the plans and then leave them in the hands of organised criminals – "a lot of activity that can be organised through the internet,” he added.
It would not be the first such case in Southern Europe: In 2023, Russian defector Maxime Kouzminov was assassinated in Spain with the leading theory pointing to Russian mafia acting upon orders of Russian intelligence.
Another advantage for Moscow in its plans to cast a drone shadow over the Mediterranean, relates to oil. For Pawlak, this latest threat could push NATO to focus more on the region, potentially making life easier for Russian containers transporting oil via northern Europe.
This article was adapted from the original in French.
