ORLANDO, Fla. — Ida grew into a Category 1 hurricane Friday afternoon as it made landfall along Cuba’s Isle of Youth, the National Hurricane Center said. It is expected to become a major hurricane by Sunday night before hitting the U.S. Gulf Coast.
For now, projections have Ida making landfall in Louisiana, the NHC said.
If that forecast holds true, Ida would hit 16 years to the day since Hurricane Katrina landed as a Category 3 storm with 125 mph (201 kph) winds near the riverside community of Buras in Plaquemines Parish, just down the Mississippi from New Orleans, according to The Associated Press.
A U.S. Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft identified Ida’s maximum sustained winds had intensified from 45 mph to 75 mph Friday, said the National Hurricane Center. Ida is moving northwest at 15 mph and has tropical-storm-force winds reaching up to 90 miles from the center.
The ninth named storm of the season formed into a tropical storm Thursday evening as is about 30 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth, where the Cuban government has issued a hurricane warning, as well as the Pinar del Rio and Artemisa provinces, according to the NHC’s 2 p.m. Eastern time update.
Ida’s formation is atypical and early as the ninth storm of the year on average doesn't form before Oct. 4, according to National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration records. The early formation does seem to fall in line with the NOAA’s preseason hurricane prediction of experiencing an above-average production of storms.
Ida is expected to keep strengthening before its center is over west Cuba later Friday. After, Ida is on track to draw even more power thanks to warm sea-surface temperatures between 83 and 84 degrees — the right warmth for tropical growth.
Models show Ida developing into a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 120 mph before hitting the Gulf Coast on Sunday. Among the factors making this possible is the bathtub like conditions of the Gulf of Mexico. A large pocket of water just south of the Gulf Coast is displaying sea-surface temperatures of 86 degrees.
Projections show Ida making landfall along Louisiana’s coast, but forecasters believe Ida could bring a dangerous storm surge to the Pelican State as well as Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle Sunday and Monday.
Many concerned with Louisiana’s coast have begun sounding alarm bells for coastal residents as the potential for a major hurricane threat lingers closer, said Eric Blake, a hurricane scientist out of Colorado State University.
“You can’t ask for a worse recipe for a destructive hurricane,” Blake said on Twitter. "Not much shear, and a track right up the deepest, very warm water (using ocean heat content). There is extremely serious high-end hurricane potential here!”
Other groups are also urging caution such as the Cajun Navy Ground Force, which gained national attention in 2017 after Hurricane Harvey brought deep flood waters to parts of Texas and Louisiana. The volunteer group performed water rescues for those who didn’t evacuate using their volunteer privately owned boats.
New Orleans Mayor LaToya Cantrell ordered in a Friday news conference the evacuation of everyone living outside the levee system that protects the area from flooding. But she did not say how many people lived there, but urged residents with medical conditions and other special needs to get out early. Cantrell also indicated that a volunteer evacuation should took place in the rest of the parish.
“Volunteer evacuation, now is the time to start,” Cantrell said.
The NHC issued a storm surge watch for much of the Gulf Coast including from Sabine Pass, Texas to the Alabama-Florida border.
In addition to its hurricane warning, Cuba also issued a tropical storm warning for the provinces of Matanzas, Mayabeque and Havana.
As for Florida, meteorologists are not concerned with a surprise turn to the east, said Spectrum News 13 meteorologist Chris Gilson.
“It’s not coming to Central Florida,” he said. “With respect to Louisiana, the models have been doing an excellent job honing in on southern coast of Louisiana, and the models have not shifted much since the start. It’s been very consistent.”
Gilson did say one surprise could occur in Ida’s strength. The storm will be intensifying in warm water before landfall and is anticipated to gain strength teetering on Category 4.
“I wouldn’t be surprised if it did make that jump, but it is too early to tell.”
Meanwhile, the NHC is also monitoring several system with potential to become tropical storms including an elongated broad trough of low pressure producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms about 650 miles east of Bermuda.
A tropical depression is likely to form this weekend as the system enters a favorable Atlantic zone. Meteorologists give the system a 40% chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm in the next two days and an 60% chance of doing so over the next five days. The storm is expected to speed up Sunday.
Also, a tropical wave midway between the Cabo Verde Islands and the Lesser Antilles is booming with disorganized thunderstorms. Meteorologists are much more confident in the disturbance’s development into a tropical depression in the next two days.
The NHC gave it a 80% chance of development over the next two to five days.
Finally, the NHC expects a new tropical wave to emerge of the west African coast by the middle of next week, the center said in its 2 p.m. update. Development could be possible toward the end of next week when the system moves into a more favorable environment. The wave has a 20% chance of forming in five days.
After Ida, the next three tropical storm names on the list are Julian, Kate and Larry.
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