MIAMI — The peak of hurricane season arrives Saturday — and the Atlantic is bustling with activity.
The National Hurricane Center on Friday is watching Hurricane Earl, which is forecast to turn into a powerful post-tropical cyclone in the Atlantic on Saturday.
Earl’s swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions across portions of the U.S. East Coast, Bermuda, Nova Scotia and Newfoundland through the weekend, the hurricane center said. A tropical storm warning for Bermuda was discontinued Friday morning.
Forecasters are also watching three disturbances, one of which is forecast to move off the coast of Africa early next week.
None are a threat to Florida.
Hurricane Earl was about 430 miles northeast of Bermuda on Friday. The Category 2 storm is rushing quickly northeast at 26 mph and is forecast to go a little faster later Friday before slowing considerably over the weekend in the Atlantic.
Earl’s maximum sustained winds increased Friday to near 105 mph with higher gusts, with hurricane-force winds extending up to 80 miles from the center, and tropical-storm-force winds extending up to 275 miles.
Forecasters expect Earl’s strength will fluctuate though it should retain its Category 2 status for most of Friday. The forecast no longer shows it nearing Category 3 strength.
“Earl has a few more hours before it begins extratropical transition and some very short-term further intensification can’t be completely ruled out,” the hurricane center said in its 5 p.m. Eastern time advisory.
“Earl is expected to complete its transition to a powerful hurricane-force extratropical low on Saturday and then gradually weaken through early Monday,” the hurricane center said.
The disturbance forecasters thought could potentially turn into the Atlantic’s next tropical storm is continuing to get battered by strong upper-level winds and is no longer expected to see any significant development through the next five days.
The system, about 1,000 miles east of the Leeward Islands, “is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity, mostly displaced well to the northeast of the center of the low. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of this system while it moves generally west-northwestward or northwestward for the next day or so,” the hurricane center said in its 2 p.m. advisory Friday. “The disturbance is then forecast to merge with a non-tropical system over the weekend.”
It now has a low 10% chance of formation through the next two to five days.
The other two disturbances forecasters are watching — one that is several hundred miles south of the Cabo Verde Islands and another that is on the coast of Africa — have no chance of formation within the next 48 hours.
The system south of the Cabo Verde Islands is not expected to see any “substantial development” through the middle of next week as it moves quickly west to west-northwest, according to the hurricane center. It has a low 10% chance of formation through the next five days.
As for the disturbance on the African coast, it could see some gradual development once it moves into the Atlantic early next week and starts heading west. It has a 20% chance of formation through the next five days.
Saturday is the “climatological peak” of the Atlantic hurricane season and is when “conditions are most optimal for tropical storms and hurricanes over the largest area,” according to the Weather Channel. The next storm name on the list is Fiona.
