MIAMI — Hurricane Earl is is forecast to turn into a major hurricane later Thursday, with tropical storm conditions expected to begin in Bermuda soon.
Swells caused by the Category 2 hurricane are also building near Bermuda and are expected to reach the U.S. east coast later Thursday. They are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions through the weekend, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters are also watching two disturbances in the Atlantic, one of which has a high chance of turning into a tropical depression or storm, possibly later Thursday. As for Danielle, it’s now a post-tropical cyclone.
At the moment, none of the systems are a threat Florida.
Here’s the forecast breakdown:
Hurricane Earl to be major hurricane
The forecast shows Earl strengthening into a Category 3 hurricane by the time it passes to the southeast of Bermuda late Thursday. After it passes Bermuda, Earl is forecast to strengthen into a Category 4 hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph while it’s in the open water. This is the minimum wind speed needed to be classified as a Category 4. Earl is then forecast to become a powerful post-tropical low on Saturday.
Bermuda is under a hurricane watch and tropical storm warning, with tropical storm conditions expected Thursday afternoon through Friday morning. Hurricane-force winds could be possible in Bermuda Thursday night if Earl’s track shifts farther west than is currently forecast, the hurricane center said.
As of the advisory at 11 a.m. Thursday, Earl was about 230 miles south of Bermuda, with maximum sustained winds near 105 mph with higher gusts. The hurricane is now moving north-northeast at 13 mph. Its hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 60 miles from its center, with tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 160 miles.
Two disturbances, one could be a depression or storm
A disturbance almost a thousand miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands could turn into a “short-lived tropical depression or storm later today” if it sees a small increase in organization as it moves quickly west to west-northwest over the central Atlantic, forecasters said Thursday.
“After that time, upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development,” the hurricane center said.
The hurricane center is giving it a 70% chance of formation through the next two to five days. If the system were to turn into a tropical storm, it would be named Fiona.
The other disturbance forecasters are watching has emerged off the west coast of Africa Thursday morning and could see some gradual development as it moves west-northwest over the open water.
It has no chance of formation in the next 48 hours and a low 30% chance of formation through the next five days.
Danielle
The hurricane center shortly before 11 a.m. Thursday issued its final advisory for Danielle, announcing that it had turned into a post-tropical cyclone about 715 miles north-northwest of the Azores.
It has maximum sustained winds near 65 mph with higher gusts and is still producing rough seas in the central northern Atlantic, with its tropical-storm-force winds extending outward up to 230 miles from its center.
“Danielle is forecast to remain a large post-tropical cyclone over the north Atlantic for the next several days, even as its peak winds slowly decrease,” the hurricane center said.
The system has begun to make its long-awaited counterclockwise loop, which should take 36 to 48 hours to complete and will then move southeast to east-southeast through the weekend, toward Western Europe, forecasters said.
