The news this week that injury will keep Manchester United striker Rasmus Hojlund out for six weeks threw Ivan Toney's name immediately back into the transfer speculation ether.
It is a world the Brentford and England striker has become used to inhabiting — one that, to some extent, he has placed his name himself.
Suggestions of arrogance perhaps go too far, but Toney is an immensely confident figure. The 28-year-old’s journey from Northampton to Brentford stardom, via rejection from Newcastle, has required such steeliness and he has made no secret of now wanting to test himself at a top club.
When he returns to training at Jersey Road on Monday, speculation about where he might spend the coming season will crank back up. But the landscape of his situation has changed dramatically over the past year.
Last August, Toney joined leading agency CAA Stellar, run by Jonathan Barnett. Toney described it as a “fresh beginning”, and it felt like a statement of intent, not only to return in form in January from his eight-month betting ban, but to look beyond that and to his longer-term future.
Indeed, on the eve of his return to action against Nottingham Forest on January 20, he spoke openly about his career goals
“You can never predict when is the right time to move elsewhere, but I think it’s obvious I want to play for a top club,” he said. “Everybody wants to play for a top club that is fighting for titles. Whether it’s this January that is the right time for a club to come in and pay the right money, who knows?”
Toney’s transfer value has dropped dramatically. Said to be as much as £80million when he scored four goals in his first five matches after returning from his ban in the new year, he finished the season on a 12-game goal drought.
Last season, Brentford manager Thomas Frank often addressed the distinct possibility that Toney might leave this summer, however, Bees chiefs are now resigned to the fact they would do well to get £40m-£50m for him.
Once wanted by Chelsea and Arsenal, it is now difficult to see who might want Toney, even at a reduced price.
There is little suggestion that the Gunners are looking for an upgrade on Kai Havertz and Chelsea’s Nicolas Jackson is going nowhere, with Christopher Nkunku back from injury now, too. The mooted swap deal that could potentially bring Victor Osimhen to Stamford Bridge would bring a certain end to any interest the Blues may still have in him.
However, Toney did his hopes of a statement move no harm with his cameo appearances at Euro 2024.
Gareth Southgate found he had two reliable deputies to Harry Kane in the forms of Ollie Watkins and Toney. The Brentford man came off the bench to assist Kane’s winner in the last-16 against Slovakia, before slotting his penalty away with his signature technique as Switzerland were sent packing on spot-kicks.
Time and again, Frank has called his talisman "the world’s best penalty taker". And although England lost in the Berlin final, being able to say he came off the bench against Spain does Toney's stock no harm.
Toney paid tribute to the loyalty Brentford had shown him during his eight months out when he returned from the ban, and he retains many strong relationships within club. He has made no attempt to force his way out the door, but, out of contract next year, he will not sign a new deal with the Bees and does want to move.
Just as he needs another club to stump up the required money, Toney will need Brentford to play ball, too.
But any hopes of an exit were further hit this month when club-record £30m signing Igor Thiago — seen within the club as the likely heir to Toney — suffered a meniscus injury in a pre-season friendly that will now see him out of action until late in the year.
The burden on Toney now grows. His value may have come down, but Toney would still cost serious money this summer. In a time of tight budgets and financial regulation, it becomes increasingly difficult to see how Toney’s dream will become a reality this summer.
