Ukraine's Western friends claim that they are protecting the country by defending its right to join Nato. The opposite is true. In defending a theoretical right, they are jeopardising Ukraine's security by raising the likelihood of a Russian invasion. Ukraine's independence could be defended far more effectively by reaching a diplomatic agreement with Russia that guarantees Ukraine's sovereignty as a non-Nato country, akin to Austria, Finland, and Sweden (all members of the European Union but not of Nato).
Specifically, Russia would agree to withdraw its troops from Eastern Ukraine and demobilise near Ukraine's border; and Nato would foreswear enlargement into Ukraine, provided that Russia respects Ukraine's sovereignty and that Ukraine respects Russian security interests. Such an agreement is possible because it is in the interest of both sides.
To be sure, those advocating Ukrainian membership in Nato consider such a deal naive. They point out that Russia invaded Ukraine and annexed Crimea in 2014, and that the current crisis arose because Russia has amassed more than 100,000 troops on Ukraine's border, threatening a new invasion. The Kremlin has thus violated the terms of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, wherein Russia promised to respect Ukraine's independence and sovereignty (including over Crimea) in exchange for Ukraine's surrender of the massive nuclear weapons stockpile that it inherited following the collapse of the Soviet Union.
