We’ve finally made it to the first game week of the New Orleans Saints’ 2023 season. They’ll host the Tennessee Titans at the Caesars Superdome on Sunday, Sept. 10, and it’s shaping up to be a very entertaining game — the Titans want to prove they’ve kept pace with other playoff contenders in the AFC, while the Saints are eager to show off their new quarterback Derek Carr.
So how does Carr’s offense compare to the Titans defense? Tennessee head coach Mike Vrabel has built a formidable unit, so let’s break it down looking each unit’s 2022 performance and the most important pickups they’ll be featuring in Week 1 (as well as the major absences they’ll be working around):
2022 performance in scoring
The Saints offense was rough last year. They ranked 11th-worst in points per game (19.4) and 12th-worst in red zone scoring percentage (52.1%), which is why they worked so hard to recruit Carr. He doesn’t have a great history of red zone performance (his Raiders actually had a worse scoring percentage than the Saints last year at 47.9%, tied for 6th-lowest) but they’re hoping Carr can take advantage of strong red zone personnel like Jimmy Graham, Juwan Johnson, Jamaal Williams, and Taysom Hill to end drives with touchdowns instead of field goals. It’s been a while since we’ve seen him do it, but Michael Thomas is a red zone asset too: 30 of his 35 career touchdown catches came inside the 20-yard line.
Tennessee’s scoring defense will be a great challenge to see if the Saints have the right guys in position to punch in a touchdown. Last year the Titans allowed the 13th-fewest points per game (21.1) with a league-average red zone percentage allowed (55.1%, which ranked 15th). They buckled up well against the run with opponents rushing 66 times inside the 20-yard line but scoring just 9 touchdown runs and averaging only 2.5 yards per carry. But they were vulnerable against the pass — Tennessee yielded 17 touchdown passes on just 73 pass attempts in the red zone. They only intercepted 3 passes and, crucially, bagged just 2 sacks in scoring position.
2022 performance on running plays
Look, the Saints want to run the football — they logged 465 carries as a team last season, 14th-most — but they have yet to show they’re any good at it. They ranked 19th in rushing yards per game (116.6) and 18th in yards per attempt (4.3). Their 12 touchdown runs were tied for 22nd, and they struggled to create big gains on the ground. Alvin Kamara led the running backs with his longest run picking up 27 yards. Taysom Hill picked up 60, best on the team, with Rashid Shaheed gaining 44 on a trick play.
They may struggle to run on Tennessee with or without Kamara. The Titans kept the league’s best run defense intact this summer. Their 9 touchdown runs allowed ranked 3rd-best around the NFL. They tied with the San Francisco 49ers to allow the fewest yards per attempt (3.4) and averaged fewer rushing yards per game than anyone else (76.9). Vrabel’s defense does an excellent job of reading their keys, plugging lanes, and rallying to the football. They don’t miss many tackles.
2022 performance on passing plays
The Saints had a miserable passing attack last year. Don’t let their league-average rate of passing yards per game (217.2) fool you: it was bad. New Orleans posted the 9th-worst interception rate (2.7%), ranking just above average in sack rate (6.9%). The offense was barely functional with an injured Jameis Winston or washed-up Andy Dalton at the helm; they’re lucky Juwan Johnson broke out as a scoring threat, singlehandedly accounting for 29% of their touchdown receptions last season. It’s no wonder they made Carr such a high priority in the offseason. The margin for error is razor-slim when you’re attempting the 6th-fewest pass attempts per game (30.1). Every sack and turnover weighs more.
So it’s encouraging to see Tennessee ranking league-average in pass defense. It’s partly due to their strong run defense leading to more dropbacks, but no team allowed more passing yards per game (274.8) and they were pedestrian in both touchdown percentage (4.3%) and interception percentage (2.1%), with a nondescript pass rush (their 5.5% sack rate ranked 6th-worst). The Titans have done a great job stopping the run and forcing teams to throw on them, only to struggle against the pass.
One point in their favor: star edge rusher Harold Landry III is back after missing the entire 2022 season with a training camp ACL injury. He broke out a year earlier with 12 sacks and 70 total quarterback pressures per Pro Football Focus charting, earning his first career Pro Bowl nod in 2021. He primarily rushes off the right edge, so he’ll be a big test for second-year Saints left tackle Trevor Penning.
2022 performance on third down
The Saints converted third downs at an average pace (40.2% of the time) last season, and obviously they’re hoping Carr can boost that number — so it’s a little disconcerting to see his Raiders ranked just behind New Orleans with a 39.9% conversion rate. Getting sure-handed receivers like Michael Thomas and Jimmy Graham involved on these pivotal downs could do a lot to help, but so would a heavier dose of Taysom Hill in short-yardage situations; in his career, Hill has converted a first down 53 times on 79 combined carries, catches, and pass attempts when the Saints have needed 3 yards or fewer on third or fourth down (67%). Opposing defenses continue to underestimate him in such high-leverage moments.
Tennessee boasts one of the league’s best defenses on third down: they only allowed the offense to convert a first down on 34.2% of their tries last season (77-of-225), again doing a great job of wrapping up tackles and playing short of the sticks. It’s a different story on fourth downs, though. The Titans yielded a conversion on 19 of 26 tries, most in the league (73.1%). Dennis Allen needs to trust his quarterback and the offense he’s built and go for it when the opportunity is there. History suggests it’ll work more often than not.
2022 penalties
Procedural issues were too frequent on the Saints offense last season. They ranked 12th in penalties (99) and penalty yards (841), gaining just 21 first downs by penalty (tied for second-fewest in the league). They were fouled 25 times for false starts (tied for most in the league) and 13 times for offensive holding, with 4 penalties for a delay of game. It’s worth noting that backup guard Calvin Throckmorton led the team with 5 false start penalties last year but isn’t on the roster anymore.
Mike Vrabel has a reputation for knowing the rulebook inside and out, but his defense led the NFL with 115 penalties last season (next-worst: the Giants and Vikings, tied with 111). They did only rank 7th in penalty yards, though, and their opponents’ 31 first downs by penalty were 9th-most. Tennessee led the league with 11 defensive offside fouls and 6 of them came from defensive tackles Jeffrey Simmons and Teair Tart. They’re prone to jumping the snap, which is something the Saints could take advantage of.
Titans' most important offseason additions
Tennessee fired offensive coordinator Todd Downing and replaced him with an in-house promotion, elevating passing game coordinator Tim Kelly to the role. In free agency, they worked to maintain depth in the front seven by signing pass rusher Arden Key and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair while bringing in former Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive back Sean Murphy-Bunting
They also signed a new starter at left tackle in Andre Dillard, and their splashiest pickup was all-star wide receiver DeAndre Hopkins. All of their draft picks were spent upgrading the offense, too. But we’ll talk about the Titans offense another time. Right now the focus is on their defense, which returns most of the starting lineup with greater depth than before.
Derek Carr's history vs. Titans
Carr has played Tennessee five times in his NFL career, winning 3 times while connecting on 10 touchdown passes against just 2 interceptions. He has taken 7 sacks in those games and fumbled 3 times, but for the most part he’s played well enough for his Raiders teams to put the Titans away. Outside his old AFC West rivals, Carr has thrown for more passing yards against Tennessee (1,406) than every opponent but the Indianapolis Colts (1,484) and Cleveland Browns (1,426).
He most recently saw the Titans in Week 3 last season, a game the Raiders lost by the narrowest of margins (24-22). Carr was asked to throw all over the field in Josh McDaniels’ wide-open offense but he completed just 26 of 44 pass attempts (59%), gaining 303 yards with a pair of touchdown passes to wide receivers Mack Hollins and Davante Adams. He was only sacked once but he was also intercepted in the end zone, off of a deflected pass targeted big tight end Darren Waller at the goal line. The Las Vegas defense forced a punt after the return but that proved to be a costly missed opportunity in a close game.
Week 1 absences for Tennessee's defense
The biggest absence will be starting cornerback Caleb Farley. The Titans’ first-round pick in 2021 has had a very rough road including a torn ACL in his rookie year and back surgery last December; he’s still recovering from the procedure and has started the 2023 season on the physically unable to perform (PUP) list. Former Buccaneers cornerback Sean Murphy-Bunting is expected to start in his place.
Additionally, the Titans will be without defensive tackle Shakel Brown, a promising rookie from Troy. He’s lost his first year in the NFL to a training camp ankle injury. Tennessee is still formidable up front.
