Pittsburgh Steelers fans are celebrating the team’s decision to move on from offensive coordinator Matt Canada, and a lot of New Orleans Saints faithful are hoping for the same turn of events. Pete Carmichael has struggled to elevate an offense flush with talent at the skills position and heavy investments along the offensive line — not to mention the addition of Derek Carr, who the Saints see as their franchise quarterback now and for years to come.
Canada didn’t meet expectations in Pittsburgh. Carmichael hasn’t met the standards set in New Orleans, either, but the Saints don’t appear to be ready to make a change. So how far apart are they? How has Carmichael’s Saints offense compared to the Canada’s Steelers squad which was found lacking? Let’s compare:
Records and standings
Let’s start by looking at each team’s circumstances. The Steelers were feeling much more pressure than the Saints (right now) to make a move. They’re third in the AFC North despite their 6-4 record. The Saints, on the other hand, are in first place in the NFC South in spite of their 5-5 record.
From Pittsburgh’s perspective, drastic changes are needed to stay competitive in a tight division title race. In New Orleans, decision-makers in the front office are comfortable with where they are. They shouldn’t feel that way given how , but it explains why they aren’t making a change.
Total offense
Canada’s Steelers ranked 28th in points per game (16.6) and yards per game (280.1), with Kenny Pickett’s passing attack ranking 31st (170) and the two-headed rushing offense of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren ranked 16th (110.1). Pittsburgh is averaging 59.2 plays per game (29th) and 4.7 yards per play (27th), making them one of the slowest offenses around the league. They’re taking few steps forward, and moving just a short distance each time.
Under Carmichael, the Saints rank 18th in points per game (21.4) and 13th in yards per game (337.4). Derek Carr has thrown the majority of passes in an aerial attack ranked 11th in passing yards per game (237.4), while the running attack hasn’t been much of a factor with just 100 rushing yards per game each week. New Orleans averages a hustling 68.3 plays per game (2nd) but gains just 4.9 yards per play (22nd). They’re hurrying to the line of scrimmage and running a lot of plays, but the Saints are not consistently producing big gains. Think of it as taking a lot of small steps.
Third downs
The Steelers struggled on third down this season, converting 47 of their 136 opportunities (34.6%, which ranks 25th). They’ve faced third downs on a below-average rate and weren’t able to convert often enough in these high-leverage situations. Kenny Pickett’s performance is a big reason for that: he’s attempted 94 passes on third downs, tied for seventh-most around the league, but he’s converted only 29 first downs, which ranks 20th among his peers.
The Saints, meanwhile, go into Week 12 having faced 148 third downs — fourth-most around the league. But they have converted just 36.5% of them, which is 21st. Derek Carr’s performance is a big part of that. He’s been awful on third downs, completing just 54.6% of his passes and taking a dozen sacks while throwing nearly as many interceptions (3) as touchdown passes (5). Teams are pressuring him in these situations and he’s rewarding them for it by making mistakes. He’s thrown the fifth-most passes on third down (97) but converted the tenth-most first downs (36).
Red zone scoring rate
Pittsburgh just hasn’t reached the red zone often enough to take anything away from it. Their 19 trips inside scoring position are the fewest in the league by a considerable margin; the New England Patriots (22) are next-worst. And the Steelers have scored a touchdown on just 9 of those possessions (47.4%, which is 25th), but it’s somehow not the lowest number in the league. The New York Jets have done so 6 times.
The Saints are 17-of-35 in the red zone, coming away with a touchdown on 48.6% of their trips inside the opposing 20-yard line; a rate that ranks 22nd around the NFL. Carr deserves some blame here (red zone execution was a constant problem for him with the Raiders), but so does Pete Carmichael. Look at the Saints’ target leaders in the red zone:
- Chris Olave and Michael Thomas: 9 targets
- Alvin Kamara: 6 targets
- Taysom Hill, Juwan Johnson, and Rashid Shaheed: 4 targets
- Foster Moreau: 2 targets
- Keith Kirkwood: 2 targets
Why is Carmichael scheming up so many designed looks for Olave, who isn’t known for his strengths in this phase? Why isn’t Carr throwing Thomas a better football (7 of his targets have fallen incomplete)? Johnson broke out last season with 5 receiving touchdowns off of 7 catches and 11 targets in the red zone, but he’s not getting those opportunities to jump high and make a play.
Replacement plans
The Steelers announced that running backs coach Eddie Falkner will take over as interim offensive coordinator after dismissing Canada, while quarterbacks coach Mike Sullivan will call plays. Sullivan has experience in that role as a former offensive coordinator with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and New York Giants. It’s something he’s done before.
That’s not the case for the Saints. They have been developing quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Ronald Curry on staff, but he’s only called plays in a couple of preseason games. There isn’t anyone else in the building who has ran an offense during the regular season, much less multiple seasons, besides Carmichael. That’s a staggering oversight for the Saints based off Carmichael’s shortcomings last year. If they weren’t going to replace him, they should have at least prepared a viable backup plan.
