- Russia's crucial oil and gas revenues have plummeted to multi-year lows, with January figures showing a significant drop compared to previous months and the previous year, as the fourth anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine approaches.
- This sharp decline is a result of new punitive measures from the US and the European Union, tariff pressure from Donald Trump, and a tightening crackdown on the 'shadow fleet' of tankers used to circumvent sanctions.
- The resulting revenue shortfall is forcing President Vladimir Putin to borrow from Russian banks and increase taxes, which, while currently stabilising state finances, exacerbates strains on a war economy plagued by slowing growth and stubborn inflation.
- Sanctions include US measures against Russia's largest oil companies, an EU ban on fuel made from Russian crude, and a proposed full ban on shipping services for Russian oil, alongside the existing G7 price cap.
- The financial pressure, evidenced by wider discounts on Russian oil and stalled economic growth, could potentially lead the Kremlin to consider reducing the intensity of fighting in Ukraine if the costs become too prohibitive.
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