When Paolo Banchero suffered a torn right oblique, the Orlando Magic initially struggled to get by and lost their first four games once he went down.
But not only have they learned to adapt without Banchero, the Magic are thriving, winning seven of their last eight to propel themselves to fourth in the East at 10-7.
How did they do this? And what does it all mean when Banchero comes back?
How The Magic Have Won Without Banchero
Not to do the whole victory lap spiel, but when Banchero went down, we did create a blueprint for why the team would manage to stay afloat without its All-Star forward. So far, two of our three main points have come to fruition.
First off, while Banchero is a big, athletic body who can offer some secondary rim protection at the forward spot (83rd percentile block rate among forwards, per Cleaning the Glass), he is far from an elite defender.
His absence has enabled the Magic to allocate his minutes toward their cavalcade of defensively inclined wings. Tristan Da Silva and Jonathan Issac have seen a sizable uptick in their minutes. As a result, the Magic have had the best defense in the league since Nov. 7, holding six of their eight opponents to under 100 points (in the year 2024!!).
Speaking of an uptick in minutes, the portion of the equation we got wrong was the Cole Anthony of it all. The thought was that Orlando would be losing a great deal of on-ball creation without Banchero and turn more to its streaky combo guard to fill the void. That hasn’t really happened. Anthony’s only eclipsed 15-minute mark once since Banchero got hurt.
Instead, the Magic are doubling down on their defense and letting Banchero’s co-star, Franz Wagner, carry the offense. Wagner initially had difficulty acclimating to the lone wolf role, but after a four-game grace period, the lanky forward has been playing the best basketball of his career.
Over the last eight games, Wagner is averaging 28.1 points, 6.9 assists, 6.0 rebounds and 2.1 steals on 58.6 percent true shooting. His recent stretch has culminated in a 37-point performance against the Los Angeles Lakers on Thursday night and was punctuated by a dazzling game-winning triple.
37 PTS and the victory for the Magic in LA!
What a moment for @franzboogie! https://t.co/KBdtXhgD3K pic.twitter.com/0FikJ4Phr5
— NBA (@NBA) November 22, 2024
Wagner’s play isn’t being powered by an unsustainable outside shooting run. He’s shooting 35 percent beyond the arc during this span and on the season. Instead, he’s exploded around the hoop.
Across this time, he’s shooting 67.3 percent on shots at the rim, per Dunks & Threes. Silva, who’s starting in place of Banchero, is a much more natural floor-spacer, which gives Wagner more room as he’s attacking downhill. According to PBPStats, Wagner’s rim field goal percentage is 16.7 percent better when he shares the floor with Silva than when the rookie sits.
Wagner’s efficiency has dipped significantly from his 63.8 percent true shooting before Banchero got hurt. But it’s been accompanied by a significant increase in volume (17.8 to 25.4 points per game) to steady Orlando’s offense up and enable its defense to lead the way.
The one storyline we didn’t anticipate taking form (unless, of course, you’re my editor, Jackson Frank) was the leap of sophomore guard Anthony Black. After a slow start to 2024-25, Black is on a run of his own in the last eight games. He’s averaging 10.3 points and 5.0 assists, running the offense the way Cole Anthony was supposed to when Wagner rests. Unlike Anthony, though, Black also allows the Magic to maintain their defensive identity.
I’ve talked about how Anthony Black’s confidence as a playmaker has risen, especially recently (5.3 APG over his last 3 GP)
He’s been trusted to initiate the offense more and that’s when he’s at his best
Don’t forget that he’s one of the best guard defenders in the league too pic.twitter.com/9QXnMpfN2W
— Point Made Basketball (@pointmadebball) November 21, 2024
What Happens When Banchero Comes Back?
Do we have a case of Ewing Theory going on here? Are the Magic secretly better without Banchero?
No, they are not better without Banchero. Whatever they lose defensively with him is easily mitigated by his irreplaceable offensive impact. Before Banchero went down, Orlando’s net rating was plus-5.3 with the league’s 15th-ranked offense. Since he’s been out of the rotation, the Magic’s net rating is plus-2.0 and they’re 26th in offensive rating. Those are very different caliber of teams, despite Orlando’s 7-5 record amid Banchero’s absence.
During Banchero’s absence, Black, Silva, and Jalen Suggs have received invaluable reps that they wouldn’t otherwise without this injury situation. Once the team is back to full strength, those three will now be better equipped to flank the Magic’s star duo.
As for Wagner, he’s rediscovered his 3-point stroke after a concerning 2023-24 at 28.2 percent. His positive regression back to 35 percent from deep this season will help him better stretch the floor for Banchero’s bruising downhill style.
With the way he stormed out the gates, Banchero’s injury was particularly awful. Yet the ever-resilient Magic have found a way to persevere. Led by Wagner’s dominant stardom, these Banchero-less experiences are making them a more balanced and dangerous team in the long run.
