Before the 2022 NRL season, the conventional wisdom was that it was once again Penrith/Melbourne, then the pack.
Then it became Penrith, then Melbourne, then the pack.
By now it's clear that it's really Penrith, then daylight, then the pack (feat. Melbourne). On a good day.
The Storm's recent slide — four straight losses to Manly, Cronulla, Canberra and Souths — could in previous years be chalked up as the sort of thing a Craig-Bellamy-coached side could bounce back from.
But rather than the fire in which a late-season surge is forged, the current plight appears to be a destructive blaze reducing their premiership dreams to ash.
Even Bellamy said he's "not confident [they] can turn it around" after their fourth-straight loss on Saturday night. The supercoach seemed completely at a loss to explain why his players have lost the ability to make tackles, and catch and pass the ball.
So too did past and present players on broadcasts when asked why the most successful NRL team of the past decade was suddenly incapable of doing even the basics right.
But looking at the season as a whole, it's hardly surprising the team is struggling.
One of Bellamy's favourite forwards, Dale Finucane, and star utility Nicho Hynes set sail for Cronulla in the off-season.
In round one, winger George Jennings and leading prop Christian Welch went down with torn ACLs.
During the Origin period, they lost Xavier Coates to a long-term ankle injury and Reimis Smith to a season-ending pectoral tear.
In the past month, on top of State of Origin absences, Cameron Munster, Felise Kaufusi and Brandon Smith have been sidelined for multiple weeks.
Then came the body blow.
After missing six weeks straight, superstar fullback Ryan Papenhuyzen's return to the side lasted just three games before his kneecap was obliterated, leaving Justin Olam as the only member of Bellamy's first-choice fullback-centre-wing combo still in position.
All that has added up to a constantly changing backline, with the same back five lining up in consecutive matches just once since round nine, more than two months ago.
It's no coincidence, then, that Melbourne has conceded two-thirds of their tries on those flanks. In the same period, injuries, illness and rep duties have meant six different players have started in the halves, so it's no surprise that at the other end they don't have the strike power or the cohesion to hit back.
This year has proven a bridge too far, even for the team famous for being able to win no matter who's in the line-up.
And with only Coates set to return to the wing, there has already been talk of the team making a late-season Hail Mary play for want-away Warriors fullback Reece Walsh.
And it all started so well …
The Magic Round "blockbuster" against Penrith ended a run of six-straight wins for the Storm, in all of which they had scored at least 30 points.
Up until that point in the season, the Storm and Panthers had gone tit for tat — both only losing one game, taking turns at the top of the table.
And while much attention has been paid to Melbourne's losing streak in the past month, the woes for the Victorians started around the same time as that highly anticipated clash with the Panthers in mid-May.
With Reimis Smith already gone, Papenhuyzen and halfback Jahrome Hughes joined the injured list days before the game, and Penrith barrelled over the top of them.
At the time it seemed like an excellent team steamrolling an injury-hit challenger, but now it seems like a symbolic end to their rivalry for this year's crown.
The bad news for the Storm is a trip to Penrith is waiting for them in three weeks' time — after a trip to New Zealand and a home game against the Titans, which they should use to get their house in order.
Then comes the resurgent Broncos, the well-drilled Roosters and the utterly unpredictable Eels to take them into the finals.
At this rate, the team that has been first or second for the past six seasons and made four grand finals in that time looks a chance of falling to (or even out) the back of the finals places.
Even if they can rediscover their mojo, things don't get any easier next year.
The 'Phins are coming
After bouncing back from losing Greg Inglis, Cooper Cronk, Billy Slater and Cameron Smith, it seems crazy to talk about Melbourne struggling to rebound from any amount of roster turnover, but they seem to be reaching critical mass.
After being gracious in losing his number nine jersey to Harry Grant, hooker Brandon Smith is taking the Cronk Rd to Bondi, but it's a less famous beach doing the most damage to Melbourne's 2024 stocks.
The Dolphins may have copped some flak for not making a big-name signing, but in the meantime, they're gutting the Storm's engine room.
Felise Kaufusi and Jesse and Kenny Bromwich have been mainstays of the Melbourne forward pack for the best part of a decade, but they're all heading north.
And then there are the constant headlines about Munster fielding calls from, having coffee with, and being offered millions of dollars by the 17th franchise.
Munster declared his intention to see out the final year of his contract with Melbourne, but the whispers of an approach became shouts a long time ago. At best, they're a distraction. At worst, it's enough agitation to get a deal done early.
Young guns like Jack Howarth and Jonah Pezet are supposed to be part of the future for the Storm, but perhaps a more distant future than next year.
And regardless, Bellamy, Munster and Co need to figure out how to beat the Warriors on Friday before any of them start looking that far down the track. Because right now, the Storm aren't good enough to take anyone for granted.
