How the Lib Dems might double their seats despite fewer votes – visualised

Ed Davey’s target map for the Liberal Democrats. ‘The national swing against the Conservatives, to the benefit of the Lib Dems, is not the full story,’ says one expert. Composite: Getty/Guardian Design Team

The Liberal Democrats could increase their total seats in the new parliament owing to a more efficient vote distribution across the UK, say experts, despite the party polling a lower national vote share than in 2019.

The Lib Dems are polling at an average of 10-11%, slightly lower than the 11.6% they won in 2019, which led to 11 seats in parliament.