With 15 Tests to go before this cycle ends, there are plenty of permutations and combinations that need to go in Rohit Sharma and Co's favour
The comprehensive 295-run victory against Australia in the Perth Test gave India a major boost in their attempt to qualify for the 2025 World Test Championship Final. The result pushed Australia to the second spot on the points table, while India claimed the top position.
A couple of days later, the equation changed again with South Africa's emphatic triumph over Sri Lanka at Kingsmead, Durban. The victory saw the Proteas overtake Australia and claim the No. 2 spot, pushing the Aussies to No. 3.
Still, there are three months left before the WTC points table is finalised, and the situation is already looking quite fluid.
Practically, India, Australia, South Africa, New Zealand and Sri Lanka (the current top 5) are all in the running for the top two spots. While the victory at Perth has brightened India's hopes of going to Lord's which seemed unlikely after the 3-0 home drubbing to New Zealand, Rohit Sharma's men still have a long way to go before they can be assured of a spot in the WTC Final.
TOI deconstructs the scenarios in front of India to reach the summit clash for the third successive time.
Scenario 1: If India beat Australia 5-0, 4-1, 4-0 or 3-0
A series win for India by such a comprehensive margin would see Rohit Sharma's men qualify for the final without having to depend on results of other series in the ongoing WTC cycle. Such a scoreline will all but rule out Australia, the current holders of the mace, from the race.
Scenario 2: India beat Australia 3-1
If India secure a 3-1 victory versus Australia in the five-match series, they will be able to qualify for the final if South Africa do not beat Sri Lanka in the second Test of their ongoing series.
However, a 3-1 series win for India coupled with Sri Lanka suffering a defeat to South Africa in the second Test, would see India drop out. Even a draw between South Africa and Sri Lanka would be enough for India to go through.
Scenario 3: India beat Australia 3-2
Such a scoreline would make qualification quite tricky. This means India would need help from the Lankans, who will have to secure at least a draw against Australia in their two-match Test series in Sri Lanka starting January 29.
What should serve as an encouragement to the Islanders is the fact that both the Tests are scheduled at Galle, a spin-friendly venue, where Sri Lanka are almost unbeatable. Galle to Sri Lanka is what the Gabba was to Australia before India breached the fortress in 2020-21 and West Indies did it earlier this year.
Scenario 4: India draw series 2-2 against Australia
If the Border-Gavaskar series ends 2-2 after five Tests, India's qualification chances reduce further. If that happens though, they would pray for South Africa to beat Sri Lanka 2-0 in the ongoing series and the Lankans beating Australia 1-0.
Scenario 5: If India lose the BGT by a 2-3 margin
Interestingly, even a 2-3 loss to Australia would still keep India in the hunt for a final berth. But for that, a lot of series results need to go in favour of Rohit Sharma & Co.
The ongoing New Zealand-England series needs to finish 1-1, South Africa, the hosts, have to draw both the series vs Sri Lanka and the following series vs Pakistan 1-1 and finally, Sri Lanka vs Australia have to play out a 0-0 draw in the two Tests. At Galle, that seems highly improbable.
