Six goals in a fine Champions League performance against Monaco helped temporarily ease the tension at the Santiago Bernabéu, but it may take a 16th European title for a sense of satisfaction to sweep through the Spanish capital.
Carlo Ancelotti’s final year at the helm was a chastening one for Florentino Pérez, and although he pulled the plug early on Xabi Alonso’s project, there’s clearly belief within the club that Álvaro Arbeloa is capable of leading Real Madrid to the promised land this season and beyond.
The atmosphere may be fraught, but the situation, in the blink of an eye, looks rosier for Madrid, especially in Europe.
With one league phase gameweek remaining, here’s how Real Madrid can secure safe passage to the round of 16.
How Can Real Madrid Qualify for Champions League Last 16?
Only two teams (Arsenal and Bayern Munich) have guaranteed their place in the Champions League round of 16. After their 6–1 beatdown of Monaco in Gameweek 7, Real Madrid moved up to third in the league phase table and are thus in control of their own destiny.
A win for Arbeloa’s side away at José Mourinho’s Benfica would see them advance into the last 16 either in third or fourth. Liverpool, who also have 15 points, can technically overtake them should they also win on the final matchday, but it'd take a huge goal difference swing.
A draw in Lisbon should also be enough for the perennial champions. That would leave them on 16 points, and there are five teams outside the current top eight (Barcelona, Sporting CP, Manchester City, Atlético Madrid and Atalanta) who would match their tally with wins on Wednesday. However, Madrid currently has at least a +6 better goal difference than each of these teams.
Defeat on Wednesday leaves Madrid vulnerable, with two more teams (Inter and Juventus) then able to catch Arbeloa’s side. Again, the La Liga giants’ vastly superior goal difference leaves them in a strong position.
However, nine teams could usurp Madrid completely should they lose. If five of them win and Liverpool earn a result at home to Qarabag, the 15-time champions will be consigned to the playoffs for a second straight season.
Champions League Table Ahead of Matchday 8
| Position | Club | Points | Goal Difference |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1. | Arsenal | 21 | +18 |
| 2. | Bayern Munich | 18 | +13 |
| 3. | Real Madrid | 15 | +11 |
| 4. | Liverpool | 15 | +6 |
| 5. | Tottenham Hotspur | 14 | +8 |
| 6. | Paris Saint-Germain | 13 | +10 |
| 7. | Newcastle United | 13 | +10 |
| 8. | Chelsea | 13 | +6 |
| 9. | Barcelona | 13 | +5 |
| 10. | Sporting CP | 13 | +5 |
| 11. | Manchester City | 13 | +4 |
| 12. | Atlético Madrid | 13 | +3 |
| 13. | Atalanta | 13 | +1 |
| 14. | Inter Milan | 12 | +6 |
| 15. | Juventus | 12 | +4 |
| 16. | Borussia Dortmund | 11 | +4 |
| 17. | Galatasaray | 10 | 0 |
| 18. | Qarabağ | 10 | -2 |
| 19. | Marseille | 9 | 0 |
| 20. | Bayer Leverkusen | 9 | -4 |
| 21. | Monaco | 9 | -6 |
| 22. | PSV Eindhoven | 8 | +1 |
| 23. | Athletic Club | 8 | -4 |
| 24. | Olympiacos | 8 | -5 |
| 25. | Napoli | 8 | -5 |
| 26. | Copenhagen | 8 | -6 |
| 27. | Club Brugge | 7 | -5 |
| 28. | Bodø/Glimt | 6 | -2 |
| 29. | Benfica | 6 | -4 |
| 30. | Pafos | 6 | -6 |
| 31. | Union Saint-Gilloise | 6 | -10 |
| 32. | Ajax | 6 | -12 |
| 33. | Eintracht Frankfurt | 4 | -9 |
| 34. | Slavia Prague | 3 | -11 |
| 35. | Villarreal | 1 | -10 |
| 36. | Kairat Almaty | 1 | -14 |
How Can Real Madrid Qualify for the Champions League Knockout Phase?
Real Madrid were dealt a tough hand last season, as they finished 11th in the league phase with 15 points but were forced to meet Manchester City in the playoff round.
Fortunately, Pep Guardiola’s Cityzens were far from their apex, and a Kylian Mbappé-inspired Madrid breezed into the round of 16.
There’s a chance Madrid end up in the playoffs again, and they are at least guaranteed a spot in the next phase should they fail to qualify automatically for the last 16. However, Arbeloa’s side would have to lose and be rather unfortunate in terms of results not going their way to slip out of the top eight.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as How Real Madrid Can Qualify for the Champions League Last 16.
