It always starts with a tug of the shorts. Usually followed by a couple of shirt pulls, to the left and the right. A tuck of the hair to the left, a touch to the nose, a tuck of the hair to the right, and a touch of the nose.
Bouncing the ball the whole time.
The service routine of Rafael Nadal is one of the most indelible marks of modern sport, a fingerprint on a game known to most. It's shifted and altered through his career, modest at first before evolving into its current form — much like the player himself. Regardless of its exact form, it's undeniably Nadal, unmistakable for any other player. Tennis fans have seen this dance roughly 60,000 times over the years, give or take a few lets.
To see Nadal in silhouette signifies his brilliance and his dominance. Nadal has dominated the ranks of men's professional tennis for the best part of two decades, alongside Roger Federer and Novak Djokovic. Their stranglehold on the top of the game is historic and in defiance of Father Time.
For the last half-decade, fans and pundits alike have been writing about the decline of Nadal. Yet, as we sit here awaiting the 2022 Australian Open final, Nadal is one of two players left standing. Despite inflicting almost inhumane forces on his body, Nadal is the last one left, the only one of men's tennis's 'Big Three' to be present at the Australian Open.
For several generations of young players, a "new guard" has promised to challenge the supremacy of the older crop.
The other finalist is perhaps the best player of this crop, a multidisciplinary tennis beast that happens to possess almost the perfect frame for the modern game. Daniil Medvedev doesn't always make a lot of fans when he plays, but he does win a lot. It's hard to argue with how much success he has had in the past three years.
But where Nadal lives off the repetition of small routines, Medvedev is less predictable.
Most global tennis fans are focused on Nadal's chase for 21, the most grand slam titles for a male player in tennis history. A Medvedev win would see him earn his second title, a mere 18 behind the Federer-Nadal-Djokovic triumvirate.
A Medvedev win would also make him the first non-Big Three player to win consecutive majors since Andre Agassi won the US-Australian Open double in 1999-2000.
The 2022 Australian Open final shapes up as a monumental battle between the past and the future.
Nadal's total control
From the service routine down to how he plays on court, watching Nadal play is watching an athlete with total control over his surroundings. Nadal seems to bend the game to his will, turning unfavourable situations his way.
In tennis, attack and defence are separated by mere milliseconds and centimetres. A slightly slower ball through the air, that passes the net a little higher than it should, can often be a point-losing mistake.
No player is better at pouncing on these opportunities than Nadal.
For much of his reign at the top of tennis, Nadal's return game has been unimpeachable. He can put even the best servers under pressure, regardless of the situation. Nadal is willing to play deep on the return and hit the ball with enormous amounts of top spin. That means that he can hit hard and fast balls that seemingly dip into the corner of courts from nowhere, forcing his opponents even deeper.
Nadal is a master of the angles of tennis. No other player finds the acute angles that the Majorcan maestro can see. The extreme amounts of spin that Nadal can generate make routine shots unreturnable.
Earlier in his career, Nadal suffered from significant injuries from his style of play. Many considered it impossible to play the way he did long-term, without breaking down along the way. However, as he aged he has become more durable. Despite suffering from noticeable injuries and niggles through the Australian Open, the Spaniard has fought through to the final.
Through the tournament, Nadal has successfully avoided unforced errors, forcing his opponents to make mistakes more than winning points off his own racquet. In his last two matches, Nadal struck fewer winners than his opponents but also committed far fewer unforced errors.
If Nadal has a weaker area to his game, it's probably his serve. Never a particularly hard server, Nadal struggles to make his serves unreturnable. He also has one of the most distinctive first-serve profiles on tour, going down the middle on the deuce court and wide on the advantage point more than almost any other top player. This predictability may also limit his ability to surprise his opponents, leading to fewer aces.
But as the points get deeper, Nadal inevitably works his way into stronger positions.
Given his 20 grand slam titles to date, it's not so much a weakness as a less strong area, but it has presented opponents the ability to generate break-point opportunities.
Holding serve might be key to him winning his 21st title as well.
The player of the future
There's no one way to win a tennis match, no perfect strategy that defeats all others. Part of the beauty of tennis is the contrast of styles between players; say a defensive baseliner against a tall servebot.
But if you could design a tennis player from scratch, built for the modern game, it would probably look something like Daniil Medvedev. The Moscovite combines size, speed and ball-striking ability into one complete package, able to do most things well and some things exceptionally.
Medvedev is 6'6" in the old language, nearly two metres tall, a giant of the game in more ways than one. But he also has the agility of a court rat, chasing down balls that are lost to most other players. His lanky frame and lengthy limbs can keep points alive, and turn neutral opportunities into deadly attacks.
On serve, he uses every centimetre of his frame to generate power and earn cheap points to put immediate pressure on his opponents.
He's also extremely capable at changing his game style mid-match, going from more defensively minded to more attacking as the match situation dictates. While he normally tends to set up deeper than most, his relatively quick forehand action can get sleeping opponents into trouble.
But his ground strokes sometimes lack power and penetration, forcing opponents into errors rather than hitting winners.
Medvedev is deadly in shorter points but is equally strong when they stretch out. Against Nadal, the master of tempo, long points are likely to be the order of the day.
While Nadal is the master of the modern return, Medvedev is quickly gaining ground. No player inside the top 50 had a better rate of converting break-point opportunities into won games in the last 12 months. Putting pressure on the Nadal serve will be critical for Medvedev's chances at victory.
One thing that Medvedev has struggled to control in this tournament is his occasionally short temper. Medvedev has blown up at umpires, players and even the fans so far this tournament, but it hasn't halted his progress.
Medvedev has gone through phases in his career where he has been more combustible than most, which he has acknowledged has taken focus away from his game. As a junior, Medvedev was suspended from the tour for significant periods of time due to anger, something he has largely been able to control in recent years.
Against Nadal, Medvedev will have little room for error.
The match-up
Nadal and Medvedev have met up four times in the past, including most famously in the 2019 US Open final. The Spaniard won that encounter in five gruelling sets, but Medvedev won their most recent match-up.
Three of their last six sets against each other stretched to tiebreakers, with every match bar the first going to the deciding set. The ability of both players to set up deep, keep points alive and force opponents into mistakes leads their encounters to stretch out.
Their last few encounters have also featured a plethora of breaks and break-point opportunities, speaking to the strength of both their return games. Against Medvedev's length and deep returning set-up, Nadal has struggled to strike aces on serve. In contrast, Medvedev has hit a higher-than-average number of aces against Nadal compared to his usual rate.
Given their styles of play and recent matches, the 2022 Australian Open final has the potential to be a war of attrition, a grinding classic where mental fortitude and endurance play a key role.
Whoever wins this Australian Open will likely shape the focus of tennis for the year to come, whether it be Nadal's record-breaking title or Medvedev's major winning streak.
