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The Canberra Times
The Canberra Times
Jasper Lindell

How preference flows will determine the final make up of the next Assembly

While Labor claimed a seventh straight ACT election victory on Saturday night, the final results are still a decent way off and the final make-up of the next Assembly is not yet locked in.

The ACT's Hare-Clark electoral system means that preference flows - the reason we number candidates from one to at least five - will impact who takes up the last spot in several seats.

The count will be updated over the days ahead, but you can see how the initial preferences flow between candidates in each electorate in the graphics below.

Candidates need to reach a quota in their seat to get elected. If they have more than that on first preferences (which only Chief Minister Andrew Barr achieved) then those surplus votes are passed on to people's second preferences. Then, the commission looks at who has the fewest votes and eliminates them, passsing on those second preferences. This process continues until there are only five people left.

Independents for Canberra were on Sunday holding out hope David Pollard could take a seat in Yerrabi, ahead of the Greens' Andrew Braddock.

But polling analyst Kevin Bonham said he did not think a lot of the theory.

"Conceivably Pollard gets over one of the majors' spare candidates, then on their preferences gets over the other one, and then goes head to head with Braddock with 0.55 quotas of major party surpluses to chase him with," Mr Bonham wrote.

Mr Bonham said even if Mr Pollard got over the two major parties' spare candidates, the Greens' lead was very large.

"Pollard would need something like a 63-37 split if all the major party preferences stayed in play and would probably not get that off Labor at least, but a lot of the preferences will be Liberal and a lot of Liberal voters will have voted 1-5 and stopped. So I don't see how it is realistic for Independents for Canberra to win this seat."

Polls closed at 6pm on Saturday, and ballot paper scanning has now begun. The scanning process uses an intelligent character recognition software to interpret hand-written votes and has a three-step verification process to ensure each ballot is accurately interpreted.

Elections ACT prioritises scanning the first batches of postal votes, early voting paper ballots and declaration votes on Monday and Tuesday. Votes from polling places with fewer than 20 votes for an electorate will also be prioritised.

"At the end of each day of scanning, Elections ACT combines any votes from fully scanned polling places with the electronic votes distributed on election night," the electoral commission says.

Once the data from ballot papers has been scanned and verified, the information is transferred to the ACT's electronic voting and counting system, known as eVACS.

"eVACS combines ballot paper data with the vote data from electronic voting. The computer program distributes preferences under the ACT's Hare-Clark electoral system," Elections ACT says.

Elections ACT will publish updated interim preference distributions each day, continuing until they have scanned and approved the information from every ballot paper.

A formal declaration of the result is not expected to happen before the middle of the week beginning Monday, October 28. Postal votes can be received until 5pm, Friday, October 25.

With tight races for the fifth seat in Yerrabi and Brindabella, and a close contest between two Liberal candidates in Murrumbidgee, the counting process means some candidates face an agonising wait to find out if they will make it into the Legislative Assembly.

Counting is continuing for votes cast in the 2024 ACT election. Picture by Karleen Minney
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