An April Tuesday night almost a year ago saw Bristol Rovers watch on as their League One relegation rivals pulled off a series of results that all but confirmed their relegation.
Fast-forward 12 months and Joey Barton's Gas were once again interested viewers for entirely different reasons. Battling away at the top end of League Two, Barton was in attendance as champions-in-waiting Forest Green Rovers held off sixth-placed Mansfield Town 1-0 to boost the Pirates' hopes of breaking into the top three.
Meanwhile, third-placed Port Vale edged out Salford City to open up a three-point gap to Northampton Town, the Gas and Mansfield, making it a mixed night for those of a blue and white persuasion.
Rovers' destiny, of course, remains in their own hands. They have put themselves in a position that seemed barely possible just a few months ago, and with six games to play – and a trip to Vale Park on Easter Monday – the Gas can shape their own future.
The smart money, according to the statisticians and bookmakers at least, is on Barton's side having to settle for the play-offs, but the Gas have been upsetting the odds since their fortunes transformed in mid-December and the manager has full faith in his players to get the job done.
FiveThirtyEight's model, based on form and squad values, tips Rovers to finish three points short of the automatic promotion places. Here is how the top end of League Two is predicted to finish...
- Forest Green Rovers - 90 points
- Exeter City - 83 points
- Port Vale - 79 points
- Mansfield Town - 78 points
- Bristol Rovers - 76 points
- Northampton Town - 75 points
- Salford City - 73 points (+18 GD)
- Swindon Town - 73 points (+16 GD)
- Tranmere Rovers - 73 points (+11 GD)
- Newport County - 72 points
- Sutton United - 71 points
After Forest Green's win over Mansfield on Tuesday, which opened up a 12-point gap to Northampton Town in fourth place, the bookmakers are no longer offering promotion odds for Rob Edwards' side.
According to Oddschecker, the Gas and Mansfield are the most-backed teams in the League Two promotion market, each accounting for 11.88 per cent of bets. Here are the latest promotion odds offered by SkyBet.
- Exeter City - 1/9
- Port Vale - 8/15
- Mansfield Town- evens
- Northampton Town - 2/1
- Bristol Rovers - 7/2
- Swindon Town - 7/2
- Newport Country - 4/1
- Tranmere Rovers - 11/2
- Salford City - 13/2
- Sutton United - 7/1
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