How polling failures, gambling legalization and political gridlock paved the way for the explosive rise of prediction markets

At their best, prediction markets aggregate collective intelligence to weigh the likelihood of future events. Fairfax Media/Getty Images

Though prediction markets have been legal in the U.S. for less than 18 months, they can’t stop making news and making money.

On prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket, users can stake real money on just about anything, from the winner of the 2028 U.S. presidential election to when Taylor Swift will get married.