“We want to be a proper football club and our players want to be proper players. The challenge is to get higher every week. The stakes get higher and you should relish that. Pressure, for me, is a privilege.”
That was the message from Joey Barton as Bristol Rovers prepare for 13 matches to define their season - “13 fences” as the manager has taken to saying - and fulfil his desire (and promise) of securing an immediate return to League One.
Rovers are in sensational form. No club has taken more points in League Two this year (25) than the Gas, who have lost just one of their last 13 league games.
Tuesday’s 1-0 triumph over Barrow lifted them into ninth with the play-off position just a tantalising two points away and such is the condensed nature of the division, Tranmere Rovers in third are only five points ahead of Rovers. Promotion is there for them, providing they can continue on this upward trend which, based on pure quality and a growing collective framework, is eminently possible.
But how many points do they actually need from these last 13 games to get there?
Of course, Barton will want his team going into every fixture believing they can win and take a maximum haul but going unbeaten down this final stretch will be impressive, to say the least.
Compensation needs to be made for the odd duff result, especially as Rovers have some very challenging fixtures at Tranmere and Northampton - both currently occupying two of the three automatic places - plus Port Vale, while leaders Forest Green Rovers and Bradford City, who could yet be revitalised under Mark Hughes, are visitors to the Mem before the end of the season.
Based on the last 10 completed seasons in League Two - we’ve removed the 2019/20 Covid-influenced campaign which was curtailed after 36 and 37 matches - the team finishing seventh has an average of 71.5 points, which we can round up to 72.
The span has ranged from the 68 totalled by Torquay United in 2010/11 at the low end of the scale, to the 75 recorded by Lincoln City in 2017/18 and AFC Wimbledon in 2015/16. But on five occasions the side in the final play-off spot has reached 70 or 71 points.
But that’s also ignoring the fact that, in reality, to finish seventh you theoretically only need to collect one more point that the team in eighth (notwithstanding goal difference, as Rovers will know all about). E.g when Lincoln claimed 75 points in 2018, they still would have made it with 73 as Mansfield Town in eighth finished with 72. Using that theory, it brings the required number down to 69.5, which we’ll round up to 70.
So it’s safe to say that anything between 70-72 points should earn Rovers a place in the postseason with the Gas currently 19-21 points short of those figures.
If we just take the highest number for greater clarity, Rovers need seven wins from their last 13 matches, six wins and three draws, or whatever configuration you want to make.
In ratio terms, Rovers need 1.61 points per game between now and the end of the campaign to get over the play-off line, based on the last 10 years. So far this season they’re averaging 1.54 but just taking their form in 2022, that number rises significantly to 2.08.
As for automatic promotion, it’s obviously a more ambitious target and would be some end to the season if Rovers can achieve it.
Taking the last 10 seasons into consideration, the average points haul for the team finishing in third is 82, which requires the Gas to get 31 points from these final 13 matches, equating to 2.38 points per game.
That is again slightly reduced under the concept of teams only needing to finish one point above fourth (or in Rovers’ case in 2015/16, five goals) with the target then set at 80.3.
There is an additional caveat based on the concentrated and condensed nature of the table, whereby just two results separate those teams in the automatic places and those inside or just below the top seven, which could then bring the required total down.
FiveThirtyEight’s data model, which runs thousands of real time simulations based on the current points hauls of each team, projects that Mansfield Town will finish third on 77 points. If that is the expected total, that requires just 2.0 points per game for the Gas.
Of the last 10 seasons, a sub-80 total to make third has only been recorded three times but given how many teams in the promotion picture are still to play each other, it could very realistically happen again.
If Rovers can maintain their current form, or even just drop a couple of games on the way, they have every chance of making the top three, but the immediate aim is those play-off positions, which could be as close as 40 miles over the Severn Bridge at Rodney Parade on Saturday.
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