Russia has more nuclear weapons than any other nation on the planet as well as - if his aggressive rhetoric can be believed - a president willing to use them. As Vladimir Putin ordered his armed forces to invade neighbouring Ukraine, he told other nations not to interfere, warning it could lead to “consequences they have never seen”.
He has since ordered his nuclear deterrence forces on high alert in response to what he called, “aggressive statements” from members of Nato (the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation). The United States of America responded by accusing Putin of “totally unacceptable” escalation”.
According to estimates by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists - which tracks threats to the planet, including the proliferation of nuclear weapons - Russia has a stockpile of 4,477 warheads. They are assigned for use by long-range strategic launchers and shorter-range tactical nuclear forces.
The stockpile includes about 812 warheads on land-based ballistic missiles, about 576 on submarine-launched missiles, and possibly another 200 at heavy bomber bases. Another 977 strategic warheads, along with 1,912 nonstrategic warheads, are held in reserve, according to estimates.
In January the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists warned of both the threat from nuclear weapons and tensions in Ukraine when it set the Doomsday Clock - its tool for measuring the world’s threat level - at 100 seconds to midnight. That is the closest the clock has ever been to “midnight”, the symbolic time for the end of the world. But just because Putin has waved the spectre of nuclear war does not mean he is preparing to use his weapons.
It is unclear what Putin means by “high alert” in practical terms, as the land and submarine-based nuclear missiles of both Russia and America are thought to be kept at high readiness at all times. For years the doctrine of “mutually assured destruction” (MAD) has underlined the notion that a nuclear attack on one superpower would trigger an overwhelming nuclear counterattack that would ensure the annihilation of both the attacker and defender.
That means any nation that resorts to the use of nuclear weapons ensures its own destruction. Russia’s main strategic rival, America, had a stockpile of 3,800 nuclear warheads available for delivery by 800 ballistic missiles and aircraft, as of 2020, according to the latest data published by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.
In comparison, the UK has about 225 nuclear warheads, of which up to 120 are operationally available for deployment on four Vanguard-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs). Each submarine has 16 missile tubes and carries approximately 40 warheads. One submarine is deployed at sea at all times in what is known as a Continuous At-Sea Deterrent (CASD) posture.
It typically operates on a “reduced alert” which means its capability of firing missiles is measured in days rather than minutes. Two of the submarines remain in port and can be deployed on short notice, while the fourth is kept in overhaul and could not be quickly deployed, if at all.
France, meanwhile - like the USA and the UK a member of Nato - has about 300 nuclear warheads, nearly all of which are operationally available for deployment on short notice. The world’s only other current nuclear powers are China, India, Pakistan, Israel and North Korea.
Rachel Bronson, president and CEO of the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists said: “The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists condemns the Russian invasion of Ukraine. In January, the Bulletin set the Doomsday Clock at 100 seconds to midnight, the closest to midnight it has ever been.
“We referenced the precarious situation in Ukraine. We have also repeatedly reported on the dangers of unintended escalations as military postures and investment, along with political statements, increase the likelihood that nuclear weapons might be used. This is exactly what 100 seconds to midnight conveys. It is dangerous, fluid, and unstable.”
