Get all your news in one place.
100’s of premium titles.
One app.
Start reading
Wales Online
Wales Online
National
Luke O'Reilly, PA & Alistair Mason

How long will the UK recession last and other top questions about the autumn statement answered

How long will the recession last in the UK? That was one of the top searches on Google following the Chancellor's autumn statement.

Others were asking what OBS stands for and what the new rate will be for the state pension. Here are the answers to some of those questions about the economy raised that trended following Jeremy Hunt's appearance in the Commons.

How long will the recession last in the UK?

The Bank of England forecasted last month that the recession could last for two years. It said gross domestic product (GDP) could shrink for eight consecutive quarters, which would be the longest such sequence since reliable records began around 100 years ago.

In this scenario, growth would return in the middle of 2024. The economy has faced similarly long recessions in the past, but then the quarterly drops have been broken up with an occasional positive quarter.

What does inflation mean?

Inflation is essentially a measure of how much prices are rising in the UK. It is an average across many categories, so if food prices rise, that could still be offset by drops in, say, the price of petrol.

The rate is estimated by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) by tracking a basket of around 730 goods and services - anything from dating agency fees to condoms, wild bird seed to petrol, and crumpets to pet food. The ONS’ researchers take an average of the increase or decrease of the items’ prices from a year ago – and this is the inflation rate.

What inflation rate is used for the state pension?

September’s inflation figures are traditionally used to set the state pension. This year, inflation in September was 10.1%.

What is the new rate for the state pension?

Pensions are protected by a mechanism called the triple lock. That means pensions increase in line with whichever is the highest of three measures: average wage growth, consumer price inflation, or 2.5%.

There had been some uncertainty among the recent financial instability as to whether the triple lock would be honoured, but Mr Hunt on Thursday confirmed that it would. That means state pension and benefits will rise in line with September’s 10.1% inflation figure.

Those on the full state pension will see an increase from £185.15 per week to £203.85 per week from April 2023. For those on the full, old basic state pension, who reached state pension age before April 2016, the increase means a weekly rise from £141.85 to £156.20.

What is a windfall tax?

A windfall tax is a tax levied on an unexpectedly large profit. Mr Hunt said he would increase the oil and gas windfall tax from 25% to 35% from the start of next year.

That's on the back of record profits in the industry in the UK following Russia's invasion of Ukraine. However, he levied an even higher windfall tax on wind farms, with an extra 45% charge on their profits.

What does OBR stand for?

OBR stands for the Office for Budget Responsibility, the body which produces independent forecasts about the future of the UK’s economy.

It was created in May 2010 by newly-elected chancellor George Osborne following the general election.

Sign up to read this article
Read news from 100’s of titles, curated specifically for you.
Already a member? Sign in here
Related Stories
Top stories on inkl right now
Our Picks
Fourteen days free
Download the app
One app. One membership.
100+ trusted global sources.