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Evening Standard
Evening Standard
Business
David Buik

How long can stock markets thrive amid the vortex of geopolitical uncertainty?

There is little doubt that the first six weeks of 2026 have proved very challenging for equity markets. Gone are the days when January seemed relatively plain sailing. Last January saw the start of President Trump’s shenanigans with his tariff plans. He referred to ‘tariff being the most beautiful word in the dictionary." It took some time, before US equity markets reacted adversely to President Trump’s tariff threats, as he toyed with world leaders in the first quarter of 2025, by moving his tariff thresholds in concert with his mood of the day, as the average chess player moves his pawns across a chessboard. His antics certainly had the desired effect of unsettling the investment community.

What happened in the early part of spring last year has been lost in the mists of time, as the S&P 500 closed up 16% in 2025 and the NASDAQ was 21.1% to the good in the same period. However, it is as well to give the memory bank a bit of a jog.

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