The story so far: India and the U.S. are often spoken of as the world’s largest and oldest democracies, respectively. In 2024, both countries will elect new governments. Prime Minister Narendra Modi is seeking a third straight term in the 18th Lok Sabha elections due in April-May. The U.S. will vote to elect a new President on November 5 -- the 60th time in its history. Incumbent President, Democrat Joseph Biden, is running for a second term.
What are the fundamental questions both the democracies are grappling with?
Both countries are grappling with fundamental questions regarding national identity, roles and powers of the executive, legislature, and judiciary, welfare and redistribution, and relations with the rest of the world. Other questions that are at the centre of political debates in both countries include pedagogy -- what to teach the next generation, history, the role of religion in public life, the rights and roles of various constituent social groups, women’s rights, affirmative action, border management, relations between the federal and regional governments, and the role of the media and civil society.
In both countries there are conflicts about the elections process. Democrats and Republicans question the legitimacy of the elections that they lost, in 2016, and 2020, respectively. Allegations of unfair means by both sides have cast a shadow on the process of elections. In India, it is a one-sided question -- concerns regarding the integrity of electronic voting, the impartiality of the Election Commission of India are on the rise. Selective targeting of political opponents by investigative agencies is a common concern in both the U.S. and India.
What are the visible trends in both countries?
In India, all indications are of continuing popularity of Mr. Modi, though it is not even across the country. Opposition parties led by the Congress have come together as a putative coalition -- the Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, but its capacity to consolidate all anti-BJP votes is challenged by several factors. In some regions, constituents are opposed to one another; most of them are confined to a particular region or social group and are unable to transfer votes to allies. Mr. Modi’s grip over his party is total, while the Opposition is unsure of its leadership and talking points.
In the U.S., Mr. Biden is facing historically low disapproval ratings for a sitting President. All opinion polls show him trailing potential Republican rival Donald Trump. At 81, Mr. Biden is the oldest President in the history of the U.S., and his cognitive decline is no longer unnoticeable. Mr. Biden’s support among Democrats is unravelling. The total collapse of his leadership in the wake of the Russia-Ukraine war and the unrelenting bombing of Gaza by Israel has accelerated this trend. But the Democrats have no option other than being led by him. In the Republican party, there are contenders who seek to challenge Mr. Trump but he remains the frontrunner for party nomination by a distance.
What are the manifestations of polarisation and regional divergences in India and the U.S.?
The ruling BJP in India adheres to what it calls Hindutva ideology and its politics is most popular in central, north and western India. Regions in the south, east and the northeast are less hospitable to it, as are places where religious minorities are a majority -- Punjab and Kashmir, for instance. Some regions have political elites with the capacity to resist the BJP, for example, Tamil Nadu and Telangana. But the consolidation of the Hindu votes in its strongholds combined with the India’s first past the post election give the BJP a big advantage in multiparty contests. Several States in India find the BJP policies with regard to education, health, and the role of Hindu religion in state matters disturbingly centralising. The role of unelected State Governors appointed by the Centre is a contentious topic as well.
In the U.S., the Democrat-controlled States and Republican ones have divergent approaches on various issues -- abortion, gun control and immigration for instance, which are among the perennially contentious topics. States often conflict among themselves or with the federal administration on these issues. For instance, Texas Governor Greg Abbott transports busloads of migrants that enter the border State to Democrat- governed cities such as a New York and Chicago, blaming Mr. Biden for the crisis.
Will executive-legislature relations change in both countries?
In India, the chief executive or the Prime Minister’s tenure is conterminous with the Lok Sabha, and conditional to his or her majority in the lower house. The PM’s control over Parliament has grown in the recent past, with the BJP winning absolute majorities in 2014 and 2019. In the U.S., the President’s tenure is not linked to a majority in the House of Representatives or the Senate, but his or her capacity to function is. The composition of the legislature changes every two years in the U.S., and it will do so again along with the presidential election in 2024. While India witnesses an erosion in the power of the legislature, in the U.S., a fragmented legislature causes governance stalemates. Elections in 2024 could potentially influence the checks and balances built into both democratic systems.
