A second Trump presidency could help attract critical global investment into the Hunter's fledgling clean energy economy, Port of Newcastle chief executive Craig Carmody believes.
Mr Carmody has just returned from meetings with Japanese government financiers and energy and engineering company representatives about potential investment in the port's clean energy precinct.
The response was blunt - while the Hunter's strategic advantages are well regarded, the reality is the US Inflation Reduction Act, which provides $400 billion in tax breaks and subsidies for clean energy projects, has created a stranglehold on global investment.
Among the major industrial companies that Mr Carmody and the port's executive manager of projects and assets Raymond Hohle met with was one that was poised to make 14 Financial Investment Decisions in the next two quarters, all of them based in the US.
"I asked where does Australia feature in this?," Mr Carmody said.
"They said, 'Look, Australia is not a player for us in the short and possibly medium term.
"We love your project (the Clean Energy Precinct) and we love taking coal from the Port of Newcastle but right now you are not competitive with the US (for clean energy)."
As much as the news was a bitter pill, Mr Carmody said it also revealed a window of opportunity for regions such as the Hunter should Donald Trump win the November election.
Trump has indicated he will tear up the IRA, increase investment in fossil fuels and roll back regulations aimed at accelerating the transition to electric vehicles.
Unsurprisingly, Japanese investors are racing to lock in contracts before the election.
"My view is we've got to stay in the race and we have to be viable because if Trump does get in they will have to go to plan B and we are still a player in that space," Mr Carmody said.
And there was another message from the Japanese - the Australian government needs to invest significantly more if it wants Australia to be taken seriously as a clean energy player.
"When I met with Japan Organization for Metals and Energy Security they told me that for you to be attractive for us to advise the Japanese government to underpin investment in the Port of Newcastle project, the Australian government has to do a lot more," he said.
"Understand the US Inflation Reduction Act has $400 billion available, the Japanese transition fund has US $20billion and the Australia's is $1.3billion.
Mr Carmody plans to meet with senior Australian government representatives this week to discuss the feedback.
"This is Australia's problem, not just the port's," he said.
"This transition is not going to be achieved without significantly more government investment and subsidies."
Work to establish the port's clean energy precinct has to date been supported by a $100million federal government grant.
The precinct, along with the Hunter Valley Hydrogen Hub, have both been shortlisted to share in $2 billion worth of funding from the federal government's Hydrogen Headstart program.
South Korean energy giant Kepco announced in December last year that it would plans to commence hydrogen and ammonia production at the clean energy precinct in 2028.
"I'm not a doomsayer and I'm not saying for a moment that we should not keep pushing as hard as we can. But we have to be realistic, we as private companies and community organisations are not going to be able to do this by ourselves," Mr Carmody said.
Committee for the Hunter chief executive Alice Thompson said she wasn't surprised to hear of Mr Carmody's experience in Japan. She said Hunter Hydrogen Infrastructure Masterplan identified a gap between national ambitions to be a clean energy superpower and current actions.
"We know we have to work harder to level the playing field with the IRA and meet the huge clean energy demands of our North Asia trading partners," she said.
"Regional stakeholders have worked together to set out what is happening on the ground and where we need government support. First and foremost this includes securing additional clean energy supply for our burgeoning hydrogen industry, in addition to replacing current generation capacity.
"We know what closing the IRA gap in the Hunter looks like. We are now looking to the Federal and State Budgets for action."
"Australia has positioned its clean energy and emissions reductions as domestic policy. Much more ambition and assertive, targeted action in places like the Hunter is what it will take to join the adults table and be considered a global energy player in the new economy."
The port's clean energy project compliments its work to establish a large-scale container terminal as part of a broader economic diversification strategy.
The NSW independent pricing tribunal ruled last month that the port has to pay $13 million in compensation to the state government in order to progress its plans.
The ruling followed legislation that was passed in November 2022 which gave the port a pathway to removing controversial penalties on Newcastle competing for container traffic against Port Botany and Port Kembla.
