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The Conversation

Toshi Hirabayashi, Associate Professor of Aerospace Engineering, Georgia Institute of Technology

How do scientists calculate the probability that an asteroid could hit Earth?

Earth NASA Jaxa

NASA's Webb telescope captured a photo of the asteroid 2024 YR4 from afar. European Space Agency via AP

I was preparing for my early morning class back in January 2025 when I received a notice regarding an asteroid called 2024 YR4. It said the probability it could hit Earth was unusually high.

As defending Earth from unexpected intruders such as asteroids is part of my expertise, I immediately started receiving questions from my students and colleagues about what was happening.

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