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The Conversation
The Conversation
Ligin Joseph, PhD Candidate, Oceanography, University of Southampton

How can the same El Niño cause drought in one part of the world and floods in another?

Sea surface temperatures on August 25, 2026, compared to 1991-2020. The red streak of hot water is evidence of a strong El Niño. EU Copernicus Marine Service, CC BY-SA

The Pacific Ocean is warming unusually quickly, and this year’s El Niño has already surpassed previous records. Forecasters expect it to strengthen even further before approaching its usual peak around December.

El Niño, the warm phase of a natural fluctuation in the Earth’s climate system, can reshape weather thousands of miles away, bringing drought to some regions while increasing the risk of heavy rain and flooding in others. To understand why, you need to follow what happens to the Pacific’s warm water – and the air above it.

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