On Saturday, US President Donald Trump’s envoy John Coale said that Alexander Lukashenko, the president of Belarus, had promised to stop weather balloons flying from his country into Lithuania.
It came just days after the Lithuanian government was forced to declare a state of national emergency in response to a surge in balloons flying across the border from Belarus, many of them smuggling cigarettes.
In the past year, experts say that some 600 balloons linked to smuggling and 200 drones have entered Lithuanian airspace, prompting a temporary border shutdown and causing havoc at Vilnius airport.
The balloons are thought to have transported tens of thousands of contraband cigarettes over the border. Last weekend, authorities said they seized almost 40,000 packets of cigarettes from just 11 balloons.
Usually, balloons cross the border at night to avoid detection. Once they land, illegal couriers use SIM/GPS-enabled tracking devices to locate them.
Lukashenko, a close ally of Russia, has denied state involvement in the smuggling, arguing it is carried out by criminals taking advantage of low prices in his country.
But Pavel Slunkin, visiting fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations, says that this kind of smuggling is “built into the government”. The balloons could be a ploy to pressure Lithuania into entering negotiations with Lukashenko’s dictatorial regime, he suggests.
Relations between Lithuania and Belarus have long been strained, but tensions escalated in October, when Lithuania closed two border checkpoints between the countries for three weeks. In response, Belarus banned Lithuanian lorries from its roads, halting trade. Hundreds of vehicles are still stranded in the country.
Why did Lithuania declare an emergency
Lithuania’s border tracking data shows a threefold increase in balloons crossing into the country in 2025 compared to the previous year. The most recent wave has been unusually disruptive to aviation, with a cluster of missions concentrated around Vilnius Airport from October into December.
This has prompted the Lithuanian government to declare “a nationwide emergency situation”, allowing government institutions to coordinate more closely and enlist the support of military units.
Dr Rasmus Nilsson, a lecturer in Russian Foreign Policy and Post-Soviet Politics at University College London, suggests the decision to declare an emergency situation is linked to a lack of trust in Nato.
He told The Independent: “Given recent policies and statements emanating from the United States, there is a fear in this part of Europe that local members of Nato will be abandoned in the face of attacks (hybrid or overtly military) from Russia and Belarus.
“While Vilnius might not see such a scenario unfolding in the immediate future, it sees every reason to highlight potential threats from the east to remind other Nato members of its potentially precarious position at the eastern flank of the alliance.”
Why the balloons have destabilised Lithuania
The balloons have caused significant disruption to flights, with more than 350 having been delayed, diverted or cancelled since October alone. The financial losses stemming from this now exceed €750,000.
Mr Slunkin suggests the balloons are part of a more overarching strategy. “There is a concept in Russian [and therefore Belarussian] national strategy,” he said. “They call it ‘escalate to deescalate’ – when you increase stakes for the other side to be so high that they wouldn’t be willing to go that far.”
Belarus, he suggests, is seeking to escalate tensions with Lithuania while cosying up to the United States – weakening a key alliance. President Trump has expressed admiration for Lukashenko in the past, calling him “the highly respected president”. Mr Coale, his new envoy, visited Minsk on Friday to negotiate the release of 1,400 political prisoners.
How it forms part of Putin’s ‘hybrid war’
The Lithuanian government has said the emergency comes in response to a series of “hybrid attacks” by Belarus, in reference to the “hybrid war” that Russia has waged against Western nations since the invasion of Ukraine.
The term describes a military strategy that combines conventional fighting techniques with cyberattacks, disinformation campaigns and drone incursions. Moscow consistently seeks to distance itself from responsibility for such attacks, but the increasing frequency of cases linked to Russia has led most Western governments to conclude they form part of Putin’s strategy.
In the UK, numerous cyberattacks, including those targeting the NHS, have been linked to Russia, while drones have been spotted at major airports across Europe. Russia has denied all connection.
Mr Slunkin says Lithuania has two choices: “You negotiate [with Belarus] or you hope the EU and others will deal with the situation.” So far, Lithuania has chosen the latter.
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