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The Guardian - UK

Politics

Peter Walker Deputy political editor

How accurate are MRP polls predicting huge Tory losses in next general election?

MRP YouGov Survation Patrick English

MPs on the Conservative benches in the House of Commons — Two MRP polls this week predicted huge losses for the Conservatives at the next general election but had reasonably different headline figures. Photograph: Jessica Taylor/AFP/Getty Images

If an MP’s life wasn’t nerve-racking enough, they must now face polls predicting not just how many seats their party will win, but their own electoral fate. The bad news for anxious politicians is that MRP polling is here to stay – and getting more accurate all the time.

MRP, the handy acronym for a technique called multilevel regression and poststratification, was in the news this week after a pair of polls predicted the Conservatives plummeting to 98 and 155 seats respectively at the next election.

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