ANALYSIS — Democrats need to break some streaks to win the Senate next year, but Republicans also need to break a streak of their own to hold on to the House. And even though there’s still about 17 months to go before Election Day, history is working against the GOP.
The party of the president has lost House seats in 20 of the past 22 midterm elections, a trend that goes back nearly 90 years. And in many of those midterms, it wasn’t even close, with an average loss of 32 seats in those 20 elections. House Democrats need a net gain of just three seats to win a majority in 2026.
The fewest number of net House seats that the president’s party has lost over those 20 midterms was five in 1986 (during President Ronald Reagan’s second midterm) and four seats in 1962 (President John F. Kennedy’s only midterm). House Republicans will need to buck history to keep control of the chamber.
